Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Memphis, TN

633 
WWUS54 KMEG 260228
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
928 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ARC121-260300-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150326T0300Z/
RANDOLPH AR-
928 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR RANDOLPH COUNTY...

AT 928 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF ALTON...OR 8 MILES EAST OF
THAYER...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POCAHONTAS...REYNO...MAYNARD...BIGGERS...RAVENDEN SPRINGS...DALTON...
ATTICA...ELKINS PARK...MIDDLEBROOK...HAMIL...BROCKETT...ELM STORE...
INGRAM...STOKES...BRAKEBILL...PITMAN...BIRDELL...ENGELERG AND WARM
SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9079 3649 9077 3643 9078 3642 9076
      3641 9077 3641 9075 3628 9075 3629 9080
      3619 9081 3625 9124 3626 9126 3633 9126
      3637 9128 3639 9131 3642 9131 3642 9135
      3647 9136 3648 9140 3650 9141
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 240DEG 21KT 3657 9139 

$$

067 
WWUS54 KMEG 260253
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
953 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ARC121-260303-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150326T0300Z/
RANDOLPH AR-
953 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR RANDOLPH COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
1000 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3650 9079 3649 9077 3643 9078 3642 9076
      3641 9077 3641 9075 3628 9075 3629 9080
      3619 9081 3625 9124 3626 9126 3633 9126
      3637 9128 3639 9131 3642 9131 3642 9135
      3647 9136 3648 9140 3650 9141
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 240DEG 21KT 3657 9139 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
739 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT INCLUDES PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN
UNTIL 2 AM CDT THU. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. UPDATED ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS ALREADY SENT. ALSO
UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 328 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

CURRENTLY...A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE MIDSOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTH WINDS ARE BLOWING AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT
ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE LACK OF CAP ACROSS
THE AREA...DECENT HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE. THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE QUIET AND
MILD. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO AND DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. BY LATE EVENING
EXPECT CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS TO REACH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. AT THIS
POINT THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
SEVERE THREAT WINDOW OF A FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
BY 03Z THERE IS STILL A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE AND MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR TO
SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF THE SEVERE THREAT UNTIL 06-07Z.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY
THREAT. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN SHOWER AND A THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
MIDSOUTH. BY 12Z THU THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM PARIS TN TO
MEMPHIS TO THE ARKLATEX WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP POST FRONTAL BY
THAT POINT. TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW
HALF BRINGING AND ABRUPT END TO THE MILD WEATHER.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MANY PLACES WILL HAVE MORNING HIGHS WITH
FALLING OR STEADY TEMPS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE
FRONT. THE SUN MAY PEEK OUT ACROSS NE AR BY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LARGE UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD WITH COOL NW FLOW ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...DURING THIS PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE NW FLOW COULD PRODUCE PERIODS
OF LIGHT PRECIP BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COULD EVEN BE A FEW SNOW
FLAKES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER SATURDAY MORNING THOUGH NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING TEMPS IS CONCERNED...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
NORTH OF A JONESBORO AR TO SAVANNAH TN LINE SATURDAY MORNING AND
EAST OF A DYERSBURG TN TO FULTON MS LINE SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE WE
WILL NEED SOME CLEARING TO SEE SUBFREEZING TEMPS THESE
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT TEMP
FORECAST. STAY TUNED.

SUNDAY...LOOKING DRY AND MILDER AS THE UPPER TROF EXITS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPS BACK IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH ONLY SMALL POPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL. LOOKING MORE WET BY MIDWEEK AS
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY MOVE OUT OF THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THIS EVENING...WITH LOWER MVFR/IFR CLOUDS COMING IN BEFORE
DAWN. STORMS IN OK/AR WILL GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY TOWARDS
JBR...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWEST THRU WEST AND
THEN NORTHERLY AS TWO DISTINCT FRONTS PUSH THROUGH. RAIN...GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...AND SOME IFR CIGS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SECOND
BOUNDARY. VFR WEATHER ANTICIPATED LATE AT JBR...MKL AND MEM.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
726 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-270230-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
726 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM AROUND JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO
CAMDEN TENNESSEE.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INCLUDING HARRISBURG.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING... MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO
JACKSON TENNESSEE.

AREAS IN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER COULD SEE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON SUNDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE TONIGHT.

JCL