Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
338 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG TO BORDERLINE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
7 PM.

MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION
DUE TO VARIATION BETWEEN RAIN COOLED AIR...AND AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED NEARLY FULL SUN SINCE SUNRISE. THE WARMEST READINGS...IN
THE MIDDLE 90S...ARE CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...WITH
THE COOLEST READINGS...IN THE LOW 80S...IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE
WARM TEMPERATURES FROM EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...EAST INTO PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI HAS RESULTED IN VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...FEATURED BY CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG AND
LI'S BETWEEN -4 AND -7 C. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE STRONG TO
SEVERE SIDE HERE...WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHING FARTHER
NORTH IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE MORE STABLE. AFTER SUNSET...STORMS AREA WIDE SHOULD
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WEST ARKANSAS AND WEST
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE ROTATES
THROUGH THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH EARLY TOMORROW...CONTINUING THOROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A STRONG STORM OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK BY CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE MIDDLE
80S AT THE COOLEST LOCATIONS...BUT MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD TOP
OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES.

OVER THE WEEKEND...GUIDANCE SEEMS TO WANT TO BUILD THE RIDGE BACK
IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY. BY SUNDAY WE MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES AGAIN AT
THE WARMEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS
METRO. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WE MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND OR MONDAY.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY. GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS RANGE FROM 100 TO 97 ON SUNDAY AND 100 TO 94 MONDAY...SO
THERE IS SOME HOPE THAT GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO WARM BUT GIVEN THE
FACT THAT HEAT SEEMS TO BE THE THEME OF SUMMER 2015...WILL SIDE
TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN A BIT RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES
ARE IN SIGHT AFTER THE ONGOING EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR
MKL AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
FURTHER WEST...A COMPLEX OF TSRA WAS ORGANIZING ACROSS NORTHWEST
AR. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT BOTH JBR AND MEM THIS
AFTERNOON...TIMING AROUND MEM BETWEEN 21 AND 23Z. WINDS WILL STAY
LIGHT EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS...PREVAILING FROM THE SSW.

OVERNIGHT...HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATES BACK-BUILDING TSRA
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY AT JBR AND MEM. REPEATED EPISODES OF TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE BUT TIMING THEM IS DIFFICULT AT BEST. ALL TERMINALS WILL
LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE
FROM THE WSW.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
249 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-062200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
249 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES OR MORE. A HEAT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
420 PM CDT WED AUG 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARKED TREE             35.53N 90.42W
08/05/2015                   POINSETT           AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTS OF SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN THE MARKED TREE AREA.

&&

ZDM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
448 PM CDT WED AUG 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GERMANTOWN              35.09N 89.79W
08/05/2015                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN NEAR WALNUT GROVE ROAD.

&&

ZDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
449 PM CDT WED AUG 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLLIERVILLE            35.06N 89.68W
08/05/2015                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN AND POWER OUT AROUND COLLIERVILLE.

&&

ZDM