Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1139 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...

AT MID EVENING...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER
BENTON/CARROLL COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...AND FROM THE
MEMPHIS METRO AREA TO ALCORN COUNTY MS. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A
WEAK FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION HELPED INITIATE AND SUSTAIN THE
STORMS.

EVEN WITH LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING...NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST
AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL
ADJUST POPS/QPF/SKY GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. QUICK LOOK
AT EARLY 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEK...WITH WED/THU AS POTENTIALLY THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP.

GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90...A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. LINE OF TOWERING CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WEAK SURFACE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANTICIPATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS
FRONT AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.

SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

MODELS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A 100+ KT JET AT
250 MB LOCATED IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS ENERGY INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. TONIGHT
MODELS STILL SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG DYING SURFACE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

AFTER ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...DIURNAL FORCING MAY CAUSE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH DEVELOPING
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SYSTEM
PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY.

AS THE MID-WEAK SYSTEM SLIPS FARTHER EAST THE FRONT WOBBLES ACROSS
OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.  THIS WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

BY THE WEEKEND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND BECOMES MORE
ZONAL...ESPECIALLY IN LATER FORECAST PERIODS. A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LOCATE OVER THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD GRADUALLY HEAD NORTH ALLOWING FOR A MORE WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY. THE THREAT OF AT
LEAST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS.

BELLES

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER MEM AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR. EVENTUALLY...COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR SHUNTING STORMS SOUTH. TUP WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 08Z AS COVERAGE INCREASES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.  VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT JBR AND MKL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1241 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-301145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1241 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS QUARTER SIZE HAIL ARE THE THREATS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH REACH SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH THIS WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR EPISODES OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. DETAILS
REGARDING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE PROVIDED
IN LATER FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ARZ036-049-058-MSZ001-007-008-300615-
PHILLIPS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-LEE AR-TUNICA MS-TATE MS-DE SOTO MS-
1224 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 115 AM CDT FOR...

NORTHEASTERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
EASTERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
WESTERN TATE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWESTERN DE SOTO COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 1224 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR DUBBS...OR 13 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HELENA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN PHILLIPS...SOUTH CENTRAL CRITTENDEN...EASTERN
LEE...TUNICA...WESTERN TATE AND SOUTHWESTERN DE SOTO COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3492 9015 3455 9011 3455 9020 3451 9020
      3452 9055 3488 9056
TIME...MOT...LOC 0524Z 277DEG 28KT 3461 9038

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