Alert archive / Tennessee / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Memphis, TN

May 30, 20154 counties in Tennessee

NWS Memphis, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 30, 2015, 1:44 PM CDT for 4 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 30, 2015, 1:44 PM CDT (18:44 UTC)
Expired: May 30, 2015, 2:30 PM CDT
In force: 46 min
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Carroll County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Weakley County, TN

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 180 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 3293 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 26 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 33 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 30, 12:50 PM CDT, 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 30, 12:50 PM CDT, 54 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1250 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR A SLIGHT REDUCTION OF POPS IN THE DELTA THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MCV ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...WITH RADAR INDICATING A BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL NEAR THE CENTER AND AN ILL-
DEFINED DRY SLOT ROTATING UP ALONG THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES.
HAVE REDUCED POPS IN THIS LATTER REGION TO INCLUDE THE MEMPHIS
METRO THROUGH NOON. AFTER WHICH...THE BRUNT OF THE STORMS WILL RUN
EAST OF A UNION CITY TENNESSEE...TO AN OXFORD MISSISSIPPI
LINE...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR A SEVERE STORM RUNNING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES ALONG THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF FORT SMITH
AR...MOVING EAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN AR AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. 07Z HRRR MODEL SHOWS BEST RAIN CHANCES
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST MS AND AREAS OF WEST TN NEAR THE TN RIVER BY
MIDAFTERNOON. A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST...ALONG AND BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANY
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING... AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT AND DAYTIME HEATING ENDS.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MIDSOUTH
ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTHEAST MS BEST POSITIONED TO RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT SUNDAY
EVENING... LEAVING DRIER DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER ALL
OF THE MIDSOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIODS APPEAR DRIER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST...WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GIVING WAY TO
AN ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TO A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NEITHER MODEL
RETROGRADES THE UPPER LOW SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHANCES TO THE MIDSOUTH UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK...AND ONLY THE GFS
SHOWS THIS SCENARIO. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...WE MAY SEE LOWER 90S
OVER MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HIGHS NEAR THE MODEL ENSEMBLE AVERAGE...BUT
THERE MAY BE A WARMER TREND DEVELOPING FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

AN MCV CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TEMPOS FOR TSRA HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT KMKL AND KTUP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS. AT KMEM AND KJBR WILL CARRY VCTS ALONG WITH VFR CIGS
WHERE COVERAGE IS LOWER.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH A RETURN TO
AREAWIDE VFR CONDITIONS. LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS SHOULD
TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MVFR
CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, May 30, 3:27 AM CDT, 10 hours 17 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
327 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-311015-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
327 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY. MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PWB

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 30, 12:03 PM CDT, 1 hour 41 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1203 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MOZ115-TNZ001-002-019-301745-
PEMISCOT MO-DYER TN-LAKE TN-OBION TN-
1203 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 1245 PM CDT FOR...

NORTHEASTERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...
NORTHERN DYER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
OBION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

AT 1203 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40
MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR MISTON...OR NEAR CARUTHERSVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN PEMISCOT...NORTHERN DYER...LAKE AND OBION
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3650 8888 3640 8887 3641 8895 3622 8896
      3620 8902 3620 8915 3616 8916 3601 8965
      3640 8963 3640 8959 3634 8955 3637 8951
      3642 8954 3650 8954 3650 8949 3647 8949
      3646 8946 3650 8942 3651 8931
TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 240DEG 49KT 3617 8957

Local storm report, May 30, 12:38 PM CDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 30, 12:43 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

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Special weather statement, May 30, 1:06 PM CDT, 38 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
106 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TNZ002>004-020-021-051-301845-
CARROLL TN-GIBSON TN-WEAKLEY TN-CROCKETT TN-HENRY TN-OBION TN-
106 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR...

CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
GIBSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
WEAKLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
CENTRAL CROCKETT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
EASTERN OBION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

AT 106 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR ATWOOD...OR 8 MILES
NORTH OF MILAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CARROLL...GIBSON...WEAKLEY...CENTRAL CROCKETT...HENRY AND
EASTERN OBION COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3582 8844 3583 8856 3579 8860 3580 8892
      3578 8889 3577 8891 3580 8921 3650 8902
      3650 8818
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 219DEG 32KT 3603 8871

Special weather statement, May 30, 1:26 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
126 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TNZ020-021-052>054-090-091-301915-
HARDEMAN TN-CARROLL TN-GIBSON TN-MCNAIRY TN-HENDERSON TN-MADISON TN-
CHESTER TN-
126 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR...

EASTERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTH CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN GIBSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
WESTERN MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
WESTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
EASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

AT 126 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR SILERTON...OR 8
MILES NORTHEAST OF BOLIVAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN HARDEMAN...SOUTH CENTRAL CARROLL...SOUTHEASTERN
GIBSON...WESTERN MCNAIRY...WESTERN HENDERSON...EASTERN MADISON AND
CHESTER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3500 8861 3500 8909 3580 8871 3579 8871
      3579 8860 3583 8856 3582 8830
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 226DEG 33KT 3535 8890

Special weather statement, May 30, 1:34 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
134 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MSZ022-023-301915-
CALHOUN MS-CHICKASAW MS-
134 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
CHICKASAW COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 134 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR VARDAMAN...OR 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3407 8907 3407 8872 3402 8872 3382 8885
      3381 8886 3381 8893 3375 8893 3375 8903
      3374 8904 3374 8919 3372 8919 3372 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 217DEG 29KT 3381 8916

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 30, 11:30 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Alcorn	45 min
May 30, 12:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Calhoun	47 min
May 30, 1:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Chickasaw	41 min
May 30, 2:12 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Chickasaw, Lee	48 min
May 30, 3:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Itawamba, Monroe	42 min
May 30, 3:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Panola, Tallahatchie	40 min
May 30, 3:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Tallahatchie	26 min
May 30, 3:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Yalobusha	47 min
May 30, 4:38 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Lafayette	37 min
May 30, 5:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Lee, Pontotoc	38 min
May 30, 5:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Chickasaw	43 min
May 30, 5:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Lee	45 min
May 30, 12:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Lake, Obion	42 min
May 30, 12:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lake, Obion, Weakley	42 min
May 30, 12:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Dyer, Gibson, Obion	38 min
May 30, 12:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crockett, Dyer, Gibson, Haywood, Lauderdale, Tipton	51 min
May 30, 1:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Carroll, Crockett, Gibson, Henry, Weakley	39 min
May 30, 1:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crockett, Gibson, Haywood, Madison	47 min
May 30, 1:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Chester, Henderson, McNairy	49 min
May 30, 1:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Weakley	43 min
May 30, 1:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Madison	40 min
May 30, 2:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Henry, Weakley	59 min
May 30, 2:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Carroll, Crockett, Gibson, Henderson, Madison, Weakley	50 min
May 30, 3:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Carroll, Henry	49 min
May 30, 3:19 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Madison	41 min
May 30, 3:29 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Carroll, Gibson, Henderson, Madison	2 hr
May 30, 10:37 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Mississippi	38 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Tennessee, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.