Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Memphis, TN

112 
WWUS54 KMEG 032259
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
459 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

MSC095-032309-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150103T2300Z/
MONROE MS-
459 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MONROE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 500 PM CST...
    
THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3367 8849 3368 8872 3371 8872 3401 8821
      3375 8825 3375 8832 3372 8833 3369 8837
      3369 8839 3367 8842 3367 8846 3365 8851
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 228DEG 47KT 3368 8864 3351 8862 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
301 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S.
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA OF RAIN HAS LITTLE THUNDER ASSOCIATED
WITH AN RAINFALL IS NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL
CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT 330 PM CST. WILL ALSO REMOVE MENTION
OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE HWO.

THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AS IT DOES
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND START TO BRING INTO COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL NOT BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THEY WILL BE IN THE MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE SUNNY BUT CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION
ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD MONDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND A LITTLE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AHEAD OF IT SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE AIR BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN THE AIR WE WILL SEE MOVING INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
20S.

AS BRISK NORTH WINDS BLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM UP TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE VERY COLD
AS LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS. IN ADDITIONAL WINDS OF
AROUND 10 MPH WILL PUSH WIND CHILL READINGS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO NEAR ZERO. THURSDAY WILL NOT REMAIN DRY AND CHILLY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 20S.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE SOUTH SO
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE SOME. BY FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 30S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AS THIS DOES MOISTURE WILL START TO
INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BUT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME. BY NEXT SATURDAY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING
ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (03/18Z-04/18Z)

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MS. RAIN ENDING
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS TURNING TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT INCREASING IN SPEED AND BECOMING GUSTY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
332 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-042345-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
332 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HOUSTON MISSISSIPPI TO FULTON
MISSISSIPPI. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA.