River Flood Warning 82, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
325 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...MEMPHIS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAD A GUST OF 43 MPH BEFORE NOON...ONE OF
THE STRONGEST I HAVE SEEN ANYWHERE IN THE MIDSOUTH. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS IN THE 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 HAVE BEEN COMMON AND
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT.

HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RADAR TRENDS. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS AROUND 5-6 PM AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. THIS
LINE DOES HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...AND SHOULD DECREASE FURTHER AFTER
SUNSET. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC ENERGY IS IMPRESSIVE AS THE RESULT OF A
70+KT LOW LEVEL JET. MANY TIMES WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
BALANCE THE DYNAMIC ENERGY WE SEE UPDRAFTS TORN APART...HOWEVER
STRONG SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HELP TO BALANCE THE ACTUAL SHEAR
ALLOWING STORMS TO MAINTAIN HEALTHY UPDRAFTS. THESE WINDS HAVE
ALSO USHERED DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. LITTLE ROCK MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ON THEIR 18Z BALLOON LAUNCH. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
BETWEEN 35 AND 45KT WITH LOW LEVEL HELICITY BETWEEN 300 AND
400M^2/S^2. AS A RESULT...STORMS WILL LIKELY ROTATE AND TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY...AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT...WE MAY BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LAST
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER EVEN BEFORE THEN...DYNAMICS WILL SHIFT
OFF TO THE NORTH AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH. RAIN SHOWERS
MAY LINGER IN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS LIKELY.

WE WILL SEE A COOLING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL MAYBE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MORNING LOWS SUNDAY MAY FALL TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK. MOST CONCERNED WITH A
CONTINUOUS BAND OF TS/+TSRA THAT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE PROGRESSION IN THE TAFS THROUGH EACH SITE.
OUTSIDE OF THE BAND...VCTS/VCSH IS POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS.

WINDS ARE ANOTHER ISSUE TODAY. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...ON
THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS INCREASE TO 60-70 KTS AT 5000 FT SO LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WOULD BE A CONCERN IF SURFACE WINDS WERE NOT SO
STRONG. A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-
     WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-DECATUR-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
220 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-182230-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
220 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
OF I-40 IN EAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS ALONG A LINE FROM
JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO OXFORD MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS
METRO AREA. THE TIME OF GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE
LIMITS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAY RESULT IN FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS
RETURNING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ALSO LIKELY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.