River Flood Warning 78, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D PROFILE TRENDS
INDICATE A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI AND THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS
INDICATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WEST TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AT
BEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED
OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS. AS OF 3 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
MIDDLE 80S OCCURRING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE
MID SOUTH THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH WIND BEING
THE PREDOMINANT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ALONG WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL FORCING
AND MOISTURE ARE LESS THAN IDEAL WITH THIS FRONT AND HAVE KEPT
RAIN CHANCES SCATTERED AT BEST. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH WEAK SHEAR OVERALL SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE MODE MAY LEAN TOWARDS
RATHER DISORGANIZED PULSE TYPE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A FEW
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND AND
MAY PERHAPS BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

CJC

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN AR/NORTHERN MS THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH ENE THROUGH THE EVENING EVENTUALLY
AFFECTING MEM BY 01-02Z. CURRENTLY HAVE VCTS PREVAILING GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY STILL PRESENT. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY
COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE ENDED IT TOWARD 09Z
AT MEM AS OF NOW. WILL ADJUST IF NEED BE. FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT
LIFTING CIGS AND QUIETER WEATHER WIND WINDS NORTHWESTERLY NEAR 10
MPH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
339 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-231115-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
339 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT REACHES SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.