River Flood Warning 66, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1104 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

.UPDATE...

REMNANTS OF BILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. OUTER
CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE BUT THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE DAY
GOES ON.

MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CLOUDS ALSO STRETCHES FROM CHARLESTON
MISSISSIPPI TO AMORY MISSISSIPPI. HRRR SHOWS SOME POP UP
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THIS AREA OF CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 20 POP.

OTHERWISE...THE BUILDING HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO GET INTO THE LOWER 90S.

UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015/

IT WILL BE BACK TO THE SUMMER HEAT TODAY WILL LITTLE IF ANY RAIN
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL PUSHES AWAY
FROM THE MIDSOUTH. EXCESSIVE HEAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL BE
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED THIS TIME AROUND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
NEXT WEEKEND.

EARLY THIS MORNING...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL WAS CENTERED ALONG THE
IN / KY BORDER AND WAS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH MS. CLOUDS WERE CLEARING FROM THE WEST.

SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF BILL ARE FORECAST TO PUSH HOT AIR
INTO THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 90S EXCEPT UPPER 80S TOWARD PARIS TN. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
READINGS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AR INTO SOUTHWEST TN AROUND
MEMPHIS...AND MUCH OF NORTH MS. LINGERING CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG THE
TN RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING LEAVING
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. MODELS INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND LINGERING MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH MS...INDICATED A 20 PERCENT POP FOR THIS AREA TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PUSHING EVEN HOTTER AIR
INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY REACH 105 DEGREES
ESPECIALLY FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTHWEST MS WHERE A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS. WILL NEED TO SEE HOW
MUCH IF ANY AFTERNOON DEW POINTS MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON TO GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY IF
ANYWHERE. ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS
THAN MENTIONABLE LEVELS.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY HOT DAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX
READINGS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HOT AND MOSTLY RAIN FREE WEATHER IS SEEN
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD
IMPACT TUP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN
10-15 MPH TODAY.

TVT

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
342 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-211100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
342 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX READINGS POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES
IN MANY LOCATIONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JCL