River Flood Warning 116, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
930 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES UPWARD AND CLOUD
COVER DOWN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WARM FRONT REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AT MID MORNING. A LOW LEVEL JET BASED BETWEEN
4-6 KFT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 45-50 KTS WAS NOTED FROM THE
15Z VAD PROFILER AT KNQA. THIS WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT SEVERE
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POSE A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE MID SOUTH BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO CAP THE ATMOSPHERE AND LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WITH PERIODS OF SUN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE
80 DEGREE MARK. THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BREAK A FEW RECORDS AS
THEY ARE NEARLY 30 DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT SEASONAL AVERAGES. VERY
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH DEWPOINTS NEARING 70
DEGREES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL MORE LIKE
LATE SPRING AS COMPARED TO EARLY WINTER.

UPDATED GRIDS...FORECAST...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAVE BEEN
SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015/

RECORD WARMTH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY...AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED UPPER LOW.

3 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
DENSE FOG WAS OCCURING TO THE NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...
WHILE VISIBILITIES HAD IMPROVED BEHIND THE FRONT. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING...EXPECT A NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...AS MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT HELPS SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE ELEVATED PARCELS OVERCOME AN ELEVATED CAPPING INVERSION.
BY LATE MORNING...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND WEAKENING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND RAIN CHANCES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR EL PASO LATE
THIS EVENING. DOWNSTREAM FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR UNDER INCREASINGLY
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...FROM NORTH TX TO THE OZARK PLATEAU. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHEAST AR SUNDAY MORNING...
LIKELY MAKING LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AHEAD OF A 995MB
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST TX.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO NORTH TX BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING...
WITH STRONGLY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE LOW LEVEL
WARM SECTOR ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT... WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES LESS THAN 6 C/KM. HOWEVER...00Z GFS PROGGED 850 MB REAR
INFLOW/DRYSLOT WINDS OF 50-60KT...SUGGESTIVE OF MARGINAL SEVERE
WIND THREAT WITH A QLCS CONVECTIVE MODE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STRONGLY FORCED SURFACE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
TO HAVE EXITED THE TN VALLEY REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. GFS SUGGESTS
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
NORTH OF I-40. 00Z ECMWF MAINTAINS NO POST FRONTAL QPF WEST OF
THE TN RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE A MODEST RETURN TO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF LIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. NORTHEAST MS WILL
SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY...AIDED BY
PROXIMITY TO MIDLEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. BY THURSDAY MORNING...A
REINFORCING PUSH OF DRY MIDCONTINENTAL AIR WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE EXITED MIDLEVEL TROF...ENDING PRECIP CHANCES.

THE REMAINDER MID TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE COLD AND
DRY MIDCONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE PREVAIL...WITH SEASONAL EARLY
JANUARY TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP CHANCES.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRAS/TSRAS TO KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR.
CONDS WILL START TO IMPROVE AFTER 16-18Z WHEN THE WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
WITH VFR CONDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. CONDS
WILL THEN BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS SPREADS BACK
INTO THE AREA.

SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10-12 KTS WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
916 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-271730-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
916 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TODAY.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AND
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE. THERE IS A MARGINAL
SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE MID SOUTH AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

JLH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
802 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

ARZ026>028-261430-
CRAIGHEAD AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-POINSETT AR-
802 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 830 AM CST FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

AT 802 AM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER THREE WAY...OR NEAR
CARAWAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD...NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEASTERN POINSETT COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3548 9035 3588 9033 3595 8999 3559 8999
TIME...MOT...LOC 1402Z 227DEG 46KT 3573 9026

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
905 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

TNZ001>003-019-020-261545-
WEAKLEY TN-LAKE TN-DYER TN-GIBSON TN-OBION TN-
905 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 945 AM CST FOR...

NORTHWESTERN WEAKLEY COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
EASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN DYER COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
NORTHWESTERN GIBSON COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
OBION COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...

AT 905 AM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH
WAS LOCATED NEAR CLOVERDALE...OR 16 MILES NORTH OF DYERSBURG...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN WEAKLEY...EASTERN LAKE...NORTHEASTERN DYER...
NORTHWESTERN GIBSON AND OBION COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3650 8883 3625 8881 3604 8954 3648 8943
      3650 8942 3651 8931
TIME...MOT...LOC 1505Z 244DEG 36KT 3627 8936

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