Frost Advisory 3, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
633 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A COLD
FRONT FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA BACK THROUGH THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION FROM EARLIER
TODAY HAS WEAKENED AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG
THE FRONT WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING BOTH AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. AS OF 3 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE
FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING. LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AT BEST
HAS BEEN AROUND 1300 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS THUS
FAR HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE AS WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
INDICATES THE NEAREST UPPER LEVEL FORCING HAS REMAINED WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PREDOMINANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IF ANY STORMS REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BEING COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT/NEARLY CALM WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FROST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. LONG TERM MODELS
INDICATE THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR NEXT
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TIMING OF THESE SUBTLE MID LEVEL FEATURES IS
DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT AND WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAY BECOME NEXT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT TSRA WAS 20NW OF TUP AT 2330Z.
THIS FRONT SHOULD CLEAR TUP WITHIN THE HOUR. POST FRONTAL MVFR
SHOULD PREVAIL AT MEM AND MKL INTO MIDEVENING...WITH VFR LIKELY
ARRIVING AT TUP LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND DRY AIR
SHOULD PRECLUDE POST FRONTAL FOG CONCERNS AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
336 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-041145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
336 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
PREDOMINANT THREATS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MEMPHIS.