Flash Flood Warning 91, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
649 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS TO RAISE POPS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AR AND MUCH OF NORTH MS THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED THE
QPF GRID FOR THIS MORNING IN THIS AREA.

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN BACK BUILDING
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTHWEST MS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS HAS RESULTED IN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. THINK THIS COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR DIMINISH BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.

JCL

DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 429 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/

ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED EXCESSIVE HEAT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
BUILDING INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST TODAY...INCREASING AND
EXPANDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE MIDSOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS
LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO NORTHWEST MS.

FOR TODAY...THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AFFECTING MAINLY NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL
AR...POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT SPREADING INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTH.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS ALONG WITH MORE SUNSHINE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
ALSO...ANY ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS
THE MS RIVER DELTA...INCLUDING MEMPHIS AND JONESBORO...EXCESSIVE
HEAT WILL OCCUR WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN 106 AND 109 DEGREES. THUS ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND KEPT IT GOING THROUGH SATURDAY.

AFTER TODAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE VERY HOT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS CLIMBING TO
ABOVE 110 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
RETROGRADES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LESS HOT
TEMPERATURES.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR 12Z TAF CYCLE

FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT A COUPLE OF SITES...HOWEVER...IT SHOULD ONLY
LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE AT
JONESBORO...MEMPHIS AND TUPELO. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WHICH
LOCATIONS AND TIMING. TLSJR

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST.
     FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR COAHOMA-
     DESOTO-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
437 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-251145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
437 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MEMPHIS AND JONESBORO BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 106 AND 109
DEGREES.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DELTA INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MEMPHIS AND JONESBORO.

PROLONGED EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH OVER
THE WEEKEND. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JCL