Flash Flood Warning 83, NWS Memphis, TN

549 
WGUS74 KMEG 220610
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
110 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

ARC031-111-220645-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0083.000000T0000Z-150722T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAIGHEAD AR-POINSETT AR-
110 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN CRAIGHEAD AND WESTERN POINSETT COUNTIES...

AT 109 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
JONESBORO...HARRISBURG...WEINER...CASH...EGYPT...WALDENBURG...
GREENFIELD...FISHER...HERMAN...GILKERSON...SUPPLY...PITTS...DRYDEN...
OTWELL...WINESBURG...WILEY CROSSING...PITTINGER...RISHER...VALLEY
VIEW AND UNO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3588 9103 3589 9068 3545 9074 3544 9104
      3570 9104

$$

TLSJR

575 
WGUS74 KMEG 220643
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
143 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

ARC031-111-220651-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0083.000000T0000Z-150722T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAIGHEAD AR-POINSETT AR-
143 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CRAIGHEAD AND WESTERN
POINSETT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 145 AM CDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT.

THERE STILL IS A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL POINSETT COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3588 9103 3589 9068 3545 9074 3544 9104
      3570 9104

$$
TLSJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
917 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015

.UPDATE...
AN MCV THAT MOVED EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AR
DURING THE DAY WAS SERVING TO ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT ENTERED
NORTHEAST AR AT MIDEVENING. THIS STORMS WERE RIDING ALONG AN
EAST/WEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT. THIS THETA-E GRADIENT
BECAME SLIGHTLY LESS DEFINED AS IT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST TO THE
MEMPHIS METRO AT 9 PM.

PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING REMAINS
HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE MCV CENTER /NORTHWEST LAWRENCE COUNTY AT
DISCUSSION TIME/ AND STRONG WIND CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING MCV.

FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO BOOST LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
RAIN CHANCES FURTHER...MAINLY NORTH OF I-40.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION WITH 00Z TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTH BORDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
NEAR MEMPHIS AND THE TN/MS BORDER. THE LESS DEFINED SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY NEAR THE TN/MS BORDER HAS BEEN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF TUPELO. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST ARE
MOST CLEARLY EXCEEDING THE THRESHOLD WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS
OCCURRING. WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS CONDITIONS
WILL NOT WARRANT AN ADVISORY AFTER TODAY UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
STATIONARY NEAR THE NORTH BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MULTIPLE
WEAK SHORTWAVES COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHER STORM
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE HEAT ADVISORY.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND IN
FROM THE WEST AND PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCES OF STORMS AND BRING HIGHER HEAT
INDICES BACK INTO THE AREA. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR 00Z TAFS

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH...EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AREAS OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FROM AN MCS...SO
KEPT VICINITY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY IN MORNING FOR
JONESBORO AND JACKSON. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW...TIMING AND LOCATIONS UNSURE SO USED
VICINITY. TLSJR

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-221030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
319 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING TO EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A JONESBORO
ARKANSAS...TO A PARSONS TENNESSEE LINE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE THE
MAIN THREATS.

HEAT INDICES MAY WARM TO IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

JAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
457 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-MOZ113-115-TNZ001-220000-
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-LAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...POCAHONTAS...PIGGOTT...CORNING...
WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...
KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE...TIPTONVILLE
457 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...COLD AIR FUNNELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...

COLD AIR FUNNELS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE DELTA IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE OFTEN A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL WIND ORGANIZATION OVER
FLAT HEATED LAND...UNDER DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. COLD
AIR FUNNELS RARELY TOUCH DOWN AND ARE NOT TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SEVERE WEATHER.

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
844 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015

ARZ008-017-220215-
RANDOLPH AR-LAWRENCE AR-
844 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR...

CENTRAL RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

AT 842 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS TO 50 MPH WAS
LOCATED OVER RAVENDEN...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLACK ROCK...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO LIKELY WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL RANDOLPH AND NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3623 9135 3623 9133 3624 9133 3624 9126
      3633 9126 3633 9128 3636 9128 3643 9109
      3616 9103 3609 9134 3612 9135
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 241DEG 17KT 3626 9124

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
940 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015

ARZ017-018-026-027-035-220345-
CRAIGHEAD AR-GREENE AR-CROSS AR-LAWRENCE AR-POINSETT AR-
940 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 1045 PM CDT FOR...

CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

AT 939 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MINTURN TO NEAR
BEEDEVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CRAIGHEAD...SOUTHWESTERN GREENE...NORTHERN CROSS...LAWRENCE
AND POINSETT COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3618 9035 3523 9056 3537 9104 3588 9103
      3589 9129 3609 9131
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 291DEG 21KT 3600 9103 3549 9114

TLSJR