Flash Flood Warning 75, NWS Memphis, TN

166 
WGUS74 KMEG 070305
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1005 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ARC031-037-111-070445-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0075.000000T0000Z-150707T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CROSS AR-CRAIGHEAD AR-POINSETT AR-
1005 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN CROSS...SOUTHWESTERN CRAIGHEAD AND WESTERN POINSETT
COUNTIES...

AT 1004 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS 
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY 
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
JONESBORO...HARRISBURG...WEINER...CHERRY VALLEY...CASH...HICKORY
RIDGE...EGYPT...WALDENBURG...GREENFIELD...FISHER...HERMAN...SUPPLY...
PITTS...DRYDEN...OTWELL...CARY...VALLEY VIEW...UNO...MERSMAN AND
FARRVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3570 9104 3588 9103 3588 9059 3536 9073
      3535 9104

$$

840 
WGUS74 KMEG 070330
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1030 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ARC031-037-111-070340-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0075.000000T0000Z-150707T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CROSS AR-CRAIGHEAD AR-POINSETT AR-
1030 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CROSS...SOUTHWESTERN
CRAIGHEAD AND WESTERN POINSETT COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT.

LAT...LON 3570 9104 3588 9103 3588 9059 3536 9073
      3535 9104

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DIURNAL
MAXIMUM OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE MID SOUTH REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA AND HELP TO
INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EAST TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE COMING TO AN END.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHERN CWA
BORDER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AS MLCAPES EXCEED 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
RANGES BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...THERE MAY BE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AS STORMS TEND TO MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD LOWER POPS
AREAWIDE AND CONFINE CHANCES FOR STORMS TO OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS.
THESE STORM CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AS THE SHORTWAVE CLIPS THESE AREAS.

FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND....UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL MID JULY SUMMER
WEATHER. SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WITH A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
HELPING TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID SOUTH.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO THE KTUP AREA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
850 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-080400-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
850 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INCLUDING AROUND JONESBORO AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JCL