Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1222 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS LINE IS MOVING EAST AND WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE SOME EVENING WORDING
WITH NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MCV HELPED TO
TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID
SOUTH TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECAME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. STORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND LATEST KNQA VAD PROFILER SHOWS MODEST
DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND 30 KTS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST
SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THESE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATER THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER MCV LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE NEW CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PLAN TO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR THESE AREAS WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40. THE AIRMASS SHOULD AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND
LINGER ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM ALMOST EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
MID SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK TO NEAR AND
EVENTUALLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH PREVAILING CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO
PREVAIL ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALSO KEPT IN VCTS AT KTUP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHERE CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER IS GREATER THAN ELSEWHERE AFTER 31/17Z.
WINDS TONIGHT GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS. WINDS SUNDAY BECOMING
NORTHERLY 6-10 KTS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR...SOUTHWEST 7 KTS AT
KTUP.

JCL/KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
339 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-312245-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
339 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
UNION CITY TENNESSEE TO JACKSON TENNESSEE TO CLARKSDALE
MISSISSIPPI. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE OR LARGE HAIL TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...NWS CHAT...OR
OUR SPOTTER PHONE LINE.

JLH