Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Memphis, TN

163 
WGUS74 KMEG 140236
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
936 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

ARC035-037-123-TNC157-167-140415-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-150414T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CROSS AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-TIPTON TN-SHELBY TN-
936 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT FOR
CROSS...NORTHEASTERN ST. FRANCIS...CRITTENDEN...SOUTHWESTERN TIPTON
AND CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTIES...

AT 935 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BARTLETT...WEST MEMPHIS...MARION...MILLINGTON...WYNNE...EARLE...
PARKIN...MEEMAN SHELBY FOREST STATE PARK...T O FULLER STATE PARK...
VILLAGE CREEK STATE PARK...MEMPHIS...MUNFORD...CRAWFORDSVILLE...
EDMONDSON...SUNSET...JERICHO...JENNETTE...DIXONVILLE...FRAYSER AND
DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3536 9101 3541 9038 3537 9019 3542 9007
      3541 9006 3544 9002 3547 8967 3532 8967
      3527 8984 3500 9008 3513 9047 3515 9101

$$

740 
WGUS74 KMEG 140410
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1110 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

ARC035-037-123-TNC157-167-140420-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-150414T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CROSS AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-TIPTON TN-SHELBY TN-
1110 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CROSS...NORTHEASTERN ST. FRANCIS...
CRITTENDEN...SOUTHWESTERN TIPTON AND CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 1115 PM CDT... 

THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 
THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3536 9101 3541 9038 3537 9019 3542 9007
      3541 9006 3544 9002 3547 8967 3532 8967
      3527 8984 3500 9008 3513 9047 3515 9101

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
740 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.UPDATE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LIGHTNIN/THUNDER HAS
BEEN MINIMAL. ADJUSTES ZONES TO ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER.  FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK...NO NEED TO UPDATE 100% POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSSMEMPHIS AT THIS TIME...AND SHOULD EXIT
THE MIDSOUTH NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. TOMORROW WILL BE
COOLER WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOST LIKELY IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
ARKLATEX IS PUSHING INTO THE MIDSOUTH WHILE A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROF IS LIFTING NE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MOIST
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S AND PWS AROUND 1.75 INCHES. AREAL COVERAGE IS
STARTING TO PICK UP AS LIFT GENERATED FROM THE MID LEVEL TROF
OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
SURFACE LOW OVER ERN TX WILL TRACK NORTEHAST ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT INTO NORTH MS AROUND 06Z-09Z AND THEN INTO NRN
AL/SRN MIDDLE TN BY TUE AM. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL TROF LIFTS THROUGH. MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE
AREAS. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THIS
EVENING WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AND THE ASSOCIATED INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF FROM THE SW AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROF PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA.

TUESDAY...NOT LOOKING LIKE A WASH OUT. PROBABLY A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS AROUND EARLY BUT MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY.
12Z MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR TO PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTH. THE GFS WHICH HAS A STRONGER SFC LOW TUESDAY AM SHOVES THE
FRONT WELL SOUTH...PROBABLY TOO FAR...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF HANG IT
UP OVER NE MS. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE APPROACH AND LEAVE SMALL
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH WHERE THEY
HAVE BEEN REMOVED IN THE AFTN. COOL NE FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SFC LOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...INVOF
OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NE MS COULD SEE SOME LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN ITS
COUNTERPARTS WITH THE FRONT REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND DRIER NE
SFC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF START MOVING THE
FRONT NORTH QUICKER WITH MORE PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.
TOOK A COMPROMISE APPROACH WHICH CUT POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ADDED A FEW DEGREES TO GFS NUMBERS TUES NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SURFACE
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH IN MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT. DEPENDING ON PRECIP AMOUNTS EARLY
IN THE WEEK WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE NEED FOR FLOOD WATCHES AT
SOME POINT. WE MAY START TO DRY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS MAIN UPPER TROF/UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST AND
WE TRANSISTION TO A DRIER WEST OR NW FLOW REGIME.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH JBR AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH REMAINING TAF SITES TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT MEM/MKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND AT TUP UNTIL
14/04Z...AND RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND 08Z. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH 15Z...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
307 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-142215-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
307 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT AND INTERACT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ISOLATED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
PROVIDE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. POTENTIALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE WEEK
COULD LEAD TO A SATURATED GROUND...WHICH WOULD ALLOW RAINFALL
LATER IN THE WEEK TO BECOME RUNOFF AND CREATE A FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH THE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
220 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE JONESBORO          35.80N 90.66W
04/13/2015                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            6 TO 12 INCHES OF WATER OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CARAWAY ROAD.
            1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL IN 15 MINUTES.

&&

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
654 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

TNZ049-088-140045-
TIPTON TN-SHELBY TN-
654 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...

AT 652 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN NEAR
ARLINGTON...OR 7 MILES EAST OF MILLINGTON. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

POORLY DRAINED ROADWAYS AND LOY LYING AREAS MAY FLOOD.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON AND NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3545 8958 3539 8960 3539 8962 3538 8962
      3538 8963 3529 8964 3527 8964 3527 8985
      3545 8991
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 180DEG 0KT 3535 8975

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
759 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE ATOKA              35.44N 89.76W
04/13/2015                   TIPTON             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED AROUND THE SHELBY AND TIPTON COUNTY
            LINE. UNDERWATER WITH APPROX. SIX INCHES OF WATER.
            ROSEMARK ROAD...ATOKA-IDEVILLE ROAD AND FAULKNER ROAD.

&&

MRM