Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
249 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The main focus for the forecast package will continue to be the
potential for flooding/flash flooding across many areas over the
next couple of days... A Flash Flood remains for the western half of
the CWA Wednesday.

An upper low, currently located over southeast AZ, will continue its
slow progression E/SE today, overspreading large scale forcing for
ascent across the region through at least Thursday. Yesterday, a few
thunderstorms affected western zones as well as the Davis Mountain
regions during the afternoon/evening hours. Some of the storms were
heavy rain producers and as a result, the Rio Grande River at
Candelaria briefly rose above flood stage late last night. This may
be the beginning of what is to come over the next few days.

Will begin to see an uptick in showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and tonight, particularly across SE NM, Upper Trans Pecos
and south through the Marfa Plateau and Rio Grande Valley. Similar
to yesterday, some storms could be severe through the evening hours
generally across the Van Horn and the Hwy 54 corridor/Rio Grande
Valley regions. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for these
areas through 08/02Z. Regardless, heavy rainfall will continue to be
the main threat with 1-3" of rainfall possible across these areas
through Thursday morning. Flooding/flash flooding is expected
especially across urban areas and where soils are already saturated.
The axis of heaviest rain looks to shift south and east toward the
southern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions
Thursday into Thursday night but depending on the exact placement of
the upper low, could see main precip area shift even farther south
for this time period. For now, will continue likely PoPs across
these areas. Potential impacts today through Friday may include;
flooded urban roadways and rural low water crossings, flooding of
low flowing arroyos/creeks and potentially rivers, including those
in SE NM. Reduced visibility in short distances may impact airports
and auto travel.

Friday, the upper low begins to retrograde west and rain chances
will shift south and decrease throughout the day. Clearing skies and
Drier weather expected this weekend and into the beginning of next
work week with the return of upper ridging. Below normal high
temperatures expected through Saturday due to rain/cloud cover then
temperatures are expected to rebound to above normal readings next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  64  79  63  79  /  20  60  60  60
CARLSBAD NM                    59  68  57  72  /  80  70  60  60
DRYDEN TX                      70  78  67  82  /  40  80  80  60
FORT STOCKTON TX               63  74  61  77  /  70  80  80  60
GUADALUPE PASS TX              55  63  52  66  /  80  70  60  60
HOBBS NM                       59  69  57  73  /  80  80  60  60
MARFA TX                       55  71  55  71  /  80  80  70  60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        64  75  62  78  /  50  70  70  60
ODESSA TX                      63  73  62  77  /  50  70  70  60
WINK TX                        64  73  63  78  /  80  80  70  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...
     Midland...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

&&

44/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
223 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-081930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
223 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015 /123 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CULBERSON...JEFF
DAVIS...AND PRESIDIO COUNTIES UNTIL 9 PM CDT...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND SOUTH TO THE DAVIS AND APACHE
MOUNTAINS...WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. STORMS THAT
BECOME SEVERE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP...  ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ALL LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THURSDAY...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
AND WEST OF A CARLSBAD TO ALPINE LINE. ALSO...DECISION MAKERS
SHOULD BEGIN STRATEGIC PREPARATIONS FOR POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING OF
URBAN AND RURAL ROADS...ARROYOS...AND OTHER LARGER TRIBUTARIES.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
323 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

TXZ057-058-074-080-072130-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS TX-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR TX-MARFA PLATEAU TX-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA TX-
323 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CULBERSON...
NORTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS AND SOUTHWESTERN REEVES COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
CDT...

AT 322 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES WEST OF BUFFALO TRAIL SCOUT CAMP...OR 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF
FORT DAVIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KENT...TOYAHVALE...BUFFALO TRAIL SCOUT CAMP AND BALMORHEA STATE PARK.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 170 AND 200.
 INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3067 10416 3089 10446 3124 10422 3091 10370
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 223DEG 16KT 3079 10418

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