Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

488 
WWUS54 KMAF 060118
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
818 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

TXC335-060145-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0054.000000T0000Z-150506T0145Z/
MITCHELL TX-
818 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MITCHELL
COUNTY UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 813 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST 
OF CHAMPION CREEK RESERVOIR ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY...
AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...CHAMPION CREEK RESERVOIR...OPEN
COUNTRY OF SOUTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING
KILLS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3210 10069 3208 10078 3208 10115 3211 10117
      3241 10114 3247 10108 3248 10076 3246 10069
      3233 10068 3220 10067
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 218DEG 20KT 3212 10095

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
634 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the evening with the few
storms staying east of the TAF sites. Expect low clouds with
MVFR/IFR cigs to move up across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos in the morning affecting MAF and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The low pressure system over the southwest that has been responsible
for our unsettled weather pattern the past few days is finally
opened up and is lifting to the northeast as a negatively tilted
open wave, though a jet rounding the base of the trough as well as a
few subtle shortwaves in the flow are enough support for another
round of convection this afternoon/evening, given potent
antecedent conditions across the area. Convective debris leftover
from this morning's convection has been slow to wear off over
eastern portions of the forecast area, but that said, continued
clearing and highs in the 80s this afternoon will yield at least
moderate instability along and east of the dryline. High
resolution guidance for this afternoon/evening indicates two
potential "bulls-eyes" most favorable for severe convection in our
area, where MUCAPE values potentially in excess of 2500 J/kg.
These areas are across the northern Permian Basin and Western Low
Rolling Plains, as well as the Lower Trans Pecos and Stockton
Plateau. Steepening lapse rates as the upper trough lifts across
the region would indicate large hail as being the primary threat,
but given the prevalence of leftover boundaries across the area,
as well as a favorable environment for anticipated storm motion
east of the dryline toward central Texas, a brief tornado could
also be possible.

Currently, a line of non-severe storms extends along the rather
muddled dryline from roughly Snyder south-southwestward through Big
Spring toward Sanderson.  Storms have also begun to develop over the
higher terrain of southeast New Mexico, and these are expected to
move out over the southeast New Mexico Plains as we head further
into the afternoon/evening. Behind the aforementioned line of
storms, diurnal destabilization has resulted in the development of
an agitated cu field extending from the Trans Pecos to the higher
terrain of the Davis and Glass Mountains to the south and the
Guadalupe Mountains to the West.  The main question remains whether
or not the dryline will shift west this evening, and if so, how far,
given subsidence in the wake of the departing upper trough. Latest
HRRR and NSSL WRF indicate the development of storms across the
Trans Pecos and central Permian Basin, but overall, the focus for
strongest storms and with greatest coverage should be further
east, with motion vectors carrying storms into a more favorable
environment toward central Texas, especially through the latter
part of the evening.

For the extended, models are in agreement of yet another trough
digging south over the Pacific coast and developing into a 500mb
closed low as it drifts eastward across the Four Corners Region,
keeping the dryline in place across the area. However, given the
exact location of the dryline with the upcoming trough has yet to
be established for later this week, have gone ahead and maintained
the chance PoPs through the extended, and did not deviate much
from the blended model solution. Temperature- wise, a warming
trend will continue through the end of the week and into the
weekend, with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s across much
of the area, before a cool down late in the weekend and early next
week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-061930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
230 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015 /130 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, STOCKTON PLATEAU AND
LOWER TRANS PECOS ALONG A DRYLINE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AS
WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT MAINLY OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN.  SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, BUT MORE DETAILED INFORMATION WILL BE
FORTHCOMING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION AS WE NEAR THOSE TIME
FRAMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

TXZ053-052330-
MITCHELL-
547 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE COLORADO CITY AT 547 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3220 10067 3223 10097 3240 10102 3252 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 258DEG 13KT 3233 10089

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
646 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

TXZ082-060015-
TERRELL-
646 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 40 TO 55
MPH WINDS AFFECTING CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

A THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF
DRYDEN AT 646 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3030 10212 3037 10196 3019 10180 3003 10185
      2997 10196 2998 10215 3015 10225
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 234DEG 16KT 3014 10211

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
654 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

TXZ052-053-060030-
HOWARD-MITCHELL-
654 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 40 TO 55
MPH WINDS AFFECTING SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD AND SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

A THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF
COAHOMA NEAR FARM TO MARKET ROAD 821 AT 654 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3248 10114 3228 10093 3211 10098 3209 10121
      3222 10140
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 227DEG 19KT 3218 10125

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
703 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     TORNADO          4 W LUTHER              32.45N 101.53W
05/05/2015                   HOWARD             TX   PUBLIC

&&

ANDREW.ARNOLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
706 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             7 SW COLORADO CITY      32.33N 100.94W
05/05/2015  E1.00 INCH       MITCHELL           TX   PUBLIC

&&

ANDREW.ARNOLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
733 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

TXZ052-053-060115-
HOWARD-MITCHELL-
733 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 40 TO 55
MPH WINDS AFFECTING MITCHELL AND SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTIES UNTIL
815 PM CDT...

A THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED 20 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WESTBROOK AT 732 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3208 10083 3208 10117 3213 10125 3223 10118
      3233 10117 3242 10096 3238 10073 3229 10069
      3209 10068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 231DEG 17KT 3212 10118