Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
534 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR condtions should prevail next 24 hours, except in heavy
convection. Latest sfc analysis shows the dryline just west of
KMAF. This is forecast to retreat to west of KINK/KFST overnight,
before a Pac front begins pushing it east by 12Z. For the next few
hrs, cannot rule out sfc-based convection along and east of the
dryline, and elevated activity west of the dryline, w/damaging
winds being the main threat. Pac front will scour out moisture
Thursday after 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Several chances for thunderstorms, some severe, will highlight our
weather over the next several days.

The dryline has not moved much this afternoon as anticipated due to
thicker cloud cover limiting the mixing potential. Height falls
associated with an upper trough crossing the Rockies have also
helped halt the dryline this afternoon and will likely cause it to
move back west soon. West of the dryline, mixing is beginning to
occur and southwesterly winds are increasing. High winds are already
being observed at Guadalupe Pass with parts of Eddy and Lea Co. at
advisory criteria. The winds combined with low rh's is causing
critical fire weather conditions in these areas. Please see Fire Wx
section below.

The thunderstorm forecast for this afternoon is a little difficult
given the extensive cloud cover limiting sfc heating and
instability. Storms have fired in northern Mexico and are moving
east. It is possible these storms will move into our area later
this evening so have added at least isolated PoPs to the forecast
everywhere. More storms will likely fire along and east of the
dryline mainly affecting the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos
this evening. Shear will increase this evening which will help
organize convection. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
main threats if we do see some clearing. Storms will eventually
move east of the area by Thursday morning as the mentioned upper
trough moves across the Plains.

A Pacific front will pass through Thursday morning providing
slightly cooler temperatures than today. Another, stronger front
will move across the region Friday. Temperatures behind this front
will drop below normal for Friday before warming back above normal
this weekend.

Moisture will quickly return behind the front by Friday evening. A
few thunderstorms may develop across the Lower Trans Pecos Friday
night as a disturbance moves across northern Mexico. Elevated
instability will be high so a few of these storm could be severe.
Models continue to show, although with different timing, a deepening
UA trough (even a closed low on some models) moving east across N.
Mexico this weekend. Strong lift is progged to cross the region
ahead of this system so expect widespread showers and thunderstorms
to develop once the trough gets close. For now the best chance looks
to be late Sunday into early Monday so have place highest PoPs
during this time frame.

FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag conditions have been slow to develop across SE NM this
afternoon as extensive cloud cover has delayed heating.  As skies
clear stronger winds aloft will mix down to the surface.  Will leave
Red Flag Warning in effect through this evening.  Improved fire
weather conditions are expected Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
157 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-091900-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
157 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015 /1257 PM MDT WED APR 8 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT. WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS OF EDDY... CULBERSON AND LEA
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
BLOWING DUST MAY OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS.

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND VAN HORN HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF WEST TEXAS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS REGION. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SPOTTER ACTIVATION ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
643 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

TXZ068-090015-
CRANE-
643 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTHERN CRANE COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF TUBBS CORNER
AT 643 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...BLOWING DUST...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE...ARE ALSO LIKELY.

LAT...LON 3134 10277 3156 10276 3165 10234 3165 10232
      3142 10232
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 255DEG 45KT 3147 10269