Alert archive / New Mexico / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

October 21, 2015Lea County, New Mexico

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 21, 2015, 8:04 PM MDT for Lea County, New Mexico. It was in force for 56 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 21, 2015, 8:04 PM MDT (02:04 UTC)
Expired: Oct 21, 2015, 9:00 PM MDT
In force: 56 min
Issued by: NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.5 in
Wind: 50.0 mph

County Lea County, NM

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 21, 4:32 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 2.1 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1086 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -6 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 738 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 118 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 156 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.5
Supercell composite: 3.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

214 
WUUS54 KMAF 220204
SVRMAF
NMC025-220300-
/O.NEW.KMAF.SV.W.0259.151022T0204Z-151022T0300Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
804 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND  HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN LEA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...

* UNTIL 900 PM MDT

* AT 803 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTH OF
  SLASH RANCH...OR 19 MILES NORTH OF MENTONE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
  MPH.

  HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  JAL...BENNETT AND JAL AIRPORT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3200 10367 3239 10307 3201 10307
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 235DEG 26KT 3199 10354 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

05

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 21, 5:21 PM MDT, 2 hours 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 21, 5:21 PM MDT, 2 hours 43 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
621 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Rain and thunderstorms will increase in coverage within the next
few hours and will likely impact all the TAF sites. The rain and
storms are expected to last through the next 24 hours. Ceilings
are expected to continue to decrease across the area and should
improve slightly late tomorrow morning. Winds will generally be
elevated out of the southeast with some gusts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 535 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/

UPDATE...

Will update ZFP product soon to incorporate WS 517 V/T 1200 AM
CDT/1100 PM MDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 501 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Hazards:

  * Flash Flood Watch in effect until 7 pm CDT/6 pm MDT Thursday
    for all of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico.
  * Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms tonight, with large
    hail, high winds, frequent lightning, and a few tornadoes
    possible.
  * Record-setting heavy rainfall likely from southeastern New
    Mexico east across the Permian Basin tonight.

Impacts:

  * Flash flooding of arroyos, draws, and streams. Low water
    crossings and low stretches of roads impassible. Urban
    flooding likely, with many road closures expected. High water
    rescues are possible.
  * Damaging winds may down power lines, trees, and take roofs off
    buildings.
  * Large hail may strip trees of leaves, damage vehicles, and
    possibly damage roofs.
  * Tornado damage to buildings, power lines, and homes, with
    debris covering roads and delaying recovery efforts.
  * Frequent lightning may cause localized power outages, start
    tank battery fires, and be a hazard for first responders.
  * Heavy rainfall flowing into the Colorado River tributaries may
    cause flooding of nearby low-lying areas.

An approaching closed low presently over central AZ (the same
storm system that gave us heavy rainfall almost two weeks ago!)
will slowly progress east over the next 48-72 hours. Several
embedded jet streaks on the eastern half of this system are
responsible for ongoing small convection over the Permian Basin.
As one potent jet streak and associated short wave approach this
evening, instability, deep layer shear, and sufficient moisture
will come together to produce scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms. My guess is that CI will occur either off the Davis
Mountains or east across central Pecos County within the next two
hours. A pronounced tongue of higher theta-e surface air extends
from Val Verde County northwestward into southeastern New Mexico.
Main threat will be from hail and damaging winds. However, the
shear profiles may support tornadogenic supercells where low level
winds are backed, i.e. upper Trans Pecos. As these storms move
north-northeastward, they should encounter less-favorable air.
However elevated storms are expected further north, across the
northern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains. These
storms will be capable of producing hail and maybe damaging winds.

The threat then shifts to a heavy rain event, starting over the
western Permian Basin late tonight and shifting east during the
overnight hours. Between midnight and sunrise Thursday, a large
area of 1 to 3 inch rains are forecast along an axis extending
from Marathon through Fort Stockton...Midland/Odessa...and
Andrews/Seminole/Lamesa. This axis will shift east during the
morning hours, impacting the eastern Basin and the western Low
Rolling Plains, with rainfall amounts comparable to earlier
amounts to the west. By Thursday evening...southeastern New Mexico
will have picked up anywhere between an inch or two, while farther
east, in the Permian Basin, rainfall amounts of two to three
inches with isolated amounts greater than four inches are
expected. This rainfall event is highly anomalous for west Texas
and southeastern New Mexico, and may set records at many
locations.

The threat of thunderstorms and heavy rain shifts east toward the
Hill Country and north central Texas late Thursday into Friday.
There may be enough instablilty and moisture to gin up a few
thunderstorms, but the coverage and intensity will be nowhere near
what we're expecting overnight.

Thereafter, we can expect a drying trend. A cold front will pass
through southwestern Texas and southeastern New Mexico during the
morning hours Saturday, with a wind shift to the north and fall-
like temperatures forecast for Saturday and Sunday. Looks like
another front enters the picture sometime Tuesday. This will bear
watch as we could see moisture from the remains of now TS
"PATRICIA", now about 265 miles south of Acapulco, MX. Too early
to tell right now about increases in rain chances early next
week...stay tuned.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...Crane...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...Marfa
     Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Presidio
     Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

&&

99

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 21, 1:12 PM MDT, 6 hours 52 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
212 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-221915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
212 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 /112 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE.

HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN SMALL STREAMS
AND RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE...COLORADO
RIVER...PECOS RIVER...AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES OF THESE RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
AND LOWER TRANS PECOS THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD
EXCEED 4 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODNG AND RIVER FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA BEING THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.

A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THURSDAY AS WELL AND
PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SPOTTER ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS CAN REPORT ANY FLOODING THAT MAY OCCUR
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 21, 6:32 PM MDT, 1 hour 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
732 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             ATOKA                   32.77N 104.39W
10/21/2015  E1.00 INCH       EDDY               NM   PUBLIC

&&

05

Local storm report, Oct 21, 6:40 PM MDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
740 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HAIL             COTTONWOOD              32.93N 104.39W
10/21/2015  E1.00 INCH       EDDY               NM   PUBLIC

0738 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ARTESIA                 32.85N 104.43W
10/21/2015                   EDDY               NM   PUBLIC

            STREET FLOODING IN ARTESIA.

&&

05

Local storm report, Oct 21, 6:49 PM MDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
749 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HAIL             6 SSW CARLSBAD          32.32N 104.28W
10/21/2015  E1.00 INCH       EDDY               NM   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

05

Local storm report, Oct 21, 7:19 PM MDT, 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
819 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             CARLSBAD                32.40N 104.24W
10/21/2015  E1.50 INCH       EDDY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MSCHULDT

Local storm report, Oct 21, 7:26 PM MDT, 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
826 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     FLOOD            ARTESIA                 32.85N 104.43W
10/21/2015                   EDDY               NM   PUBLIC

            STREET FLOODING IN TOWN.

&&

JD

Local storm report, Oct 21, 7:28 PM MDT, 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
828 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     FLOOD            ARTESIA                 32.85N 104.43W
10/21/2015                   EDDY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CURB-TO-CURB STREET FLOODING.

&&

JD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 21, 6:07 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Eddy	38 min
Oct 21, 6:13 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Eddy	62 min
Oct 21, 6:13 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Eddy	62 min
Oct 21, 6:20 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Eddy	3 hr
Oct 21, 6:37 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Eddy	3 hr
Oct 21, 6:53 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Eddy	37 min
Oct 21, 6:59 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Eddy	3 hr
Oct 21, 7:39 PM MDT	River Flood Warning	MAF	Eddy	70 hr
Oct 21, 8:52 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	MAF	Lea	23 min
Oct 21, 8:59 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Lea	3 hr
Oct 21, 9:06 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Lea	37 min
Oct 21, 10:06 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Lea	54 min
Oct 21, 10:39 PM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Lea	111 min
Oct 21, 10:39 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Eddy, Lea	66 min
Oct 21, 10:56 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Lea	3 hr
Oct 21, 11:26 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Lea	3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New Mexico, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.