Alert archive / New Mexico / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 3, 2015, 4:44 PM MDT for Eddy County, New Mexico. It was in force for 61 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 3, 2015, 4:44 PM MDT (22:44 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 3, 2015, 5:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 61 min
- Issued by
- NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Hail
- 1.0 in
- Wind
- 60.0 mph
County Eddy County, NM
The radar
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 134 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 5:15 PM MDT | HAIL 0.88 | Hope, NM |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 215 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 63 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -157 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2432 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -36 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -1 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.3
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
093
WUUS54 KMAF 032244
SVRMAF
NMC015-032345-
/O.NEW.KMAF.SV.W.0246.151003T2244Z-151003T2345Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
444 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...
* UNTIL 545 PM MDT
* AT 444 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF
ARTESIA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...OR 12 MILES WEST OF ARTESIA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARTESIA...COTTONWOOD...ARTESIA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AND HOPE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
&&
LAT...LON 3296 10484 3296 10431 3267 10461 3269 10483
3277 10484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 207DEG 21KT 3281 10462
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
671 follow-up statement
219
WWUS54 KMAF 032307
SVSMAF
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
507 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
NMC015-032345-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0246.000000T0000Z-151003T2345Z/
EDDY NM-
507 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY...
AT 507 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ARTESIA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF ARTESIA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARTESIA...COTTONWOOD...ARTESIA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AND HOPE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
&&
LAT...LON 3296 10484 3296 10431 3267 10461 3269 10483
3277 10484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 204DEG 19KT 3291 10457
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
67What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 3, 12:58 PM MDT, 3 hours 46 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 3, 12:58 PM MDT, 3 hours 46 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 158 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 .DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery depicts a well defined shrtwv trof INVOF AZ/NM border with a mid level trof axis sw of srn Baja and remnants of Marty s of Baja's srn tip. In the sw flow aloft there is a broad moist axis/subtropical connection that is across the CWFA, especially wrn half. Minor shrtwv trof moving thru the flow today and tonight will result in scattered SHRA/TSRA. High resolution RAP13/HRRR suggest there will precip focused from MRF Plateau to around Pecos and from around GDP Mtns thru nrn Lea Co into the late evening hrs tonight. A few strong storms are also possible across the far w into the evening where 7h-5h LR's around 7c/km and 0-6km bulk shear of 30kts are noted. Yesterday part of the challenge was identifying shrtwv trof/s moving thru the flow and is today as well. However there does look to be some consensus that a stronger shrtwv trof will move from nrn Mexico into the Trans Pecos Sunday, merging with the weakening shrtwv trof from AZ/NM. As such there is expected to be an uptick in SHRA/TSRA Sunday/Sunday night across the w. PoPs overnight won't need too much adjusting, however we will increase PoPs Sunday/Sunday night, especially across the far wrn CWFA, where local heavy rain/flooding are possible. Monday/Tuesday will be relatively down days for precip, scattered -SHRA Monday AM and an isold TSRA Tuesday in the mtns. Meanwhile a mid/upper low with an 80-90kt 3h jet will move into AZ/NM Wed. By later Wednesday and into Thursday jet dynamics will come into play, the general pattern looks to be favorable for fairly widespread rain. Although PW's don't look to be over zealous there is potential for rain to persist Thursday, at least for the ern half/third of CWFA, and flooding concerns may gradually increase into Thursday in the e. Precip chances may even persist into Fri either assocd with wrap around (GFS low e) or in deformation zone (ECMWF low sw). Superblend has been generating high PoPs in this time and generally won't make any changes. Temperatures will mostly remain well below normal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 59 83 54 70 / 10 10 10 20 CARLSBAD NM 64 69 55 69 / 60 60 60 30 DRYDEN TX 68 87 67 77 / 10 10 20 20 FORT STOCKTON TX 66 82 59 71 / 20 20 20 30 GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 67 52 66 / 70 70 60 30 HOBBS NM 56 77 52 68 / 50 30 40 30 MARFA TX 58 72 55 70 / 40 40 60 30 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 61 81 57 70 / 20 10 10 30 ODESSA TX 63 81 56 70 / 20 10 20 30 WINK TX 65 81 61 74 / 50 30 40 40 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. &&
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 3, 12:44 PM MDT, 4 hours before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 144 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-041845- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS- LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU- BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- 144 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 /1244 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, AND PERHAPS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS. MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS, LARGE HAIL HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THESE HEAVIER RAINS WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Oct 3, 3:31 PM MDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
431 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
TXZ058-032230-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
431 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL REEVES COUNTY...
AT 431 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SARAGOSA...OR 28 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT DAVIS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT
10 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SARAGOSA AND BALMORHEA LAKE.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 207 AND 223.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
LAT...LON 3084 10353 3085 10365 3105 10378 3111 10372
3111 10341
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 156DEG 9KT 3092 10361
67Special weather statement, Oct 3, 4:00 PM MDT, 44 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
NMZ027-028-032300-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY NM-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS NM-
400 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM MDT...
AT 359 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18
MILES NORTHEAST OF LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST...OR 27 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ARTESIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ARTESIA...COTTONWOOD...ARTESIA
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AND HOPE. THIS STORM MAY ALSO IMPACT US HIGHWAY 82.
LAT...LON 3253 10484 3296 10484 3297 10452 3293 10436
3246 10470 3252 10485
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 202DEG 27KT 3257 10477
80The office that day
Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 4:00 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | MAF | Eddy | 60 min |
| Oct 3, 5:24 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | MAF | Eddy | 3 hr |
| Oct 3, 5:30 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Eddy | 60 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New Mexico, 2015Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.