Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

907 
WWUS54 KMAF 232055
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
355 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015

NMC015-TXC109-301-389-232115-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0243.000000T0000Z-150923T2115Z/
EDDY NM-CULBERSON TX-LOVING TX-REEVES TX-
355 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM
CDT/315 PM MDT/ FOR SOUTH CENTRAL EDDY...NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON...
NORTHWESTERN LOVING AND NORTHWESTERN REEVES COUNTIES...

AT 355 PM CDT/255 PM MDT/...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12
MILES WEST OF RED BLUFF RESERVOIR...OR 34 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MENTONE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RED BLUFF RESERVOIR...RED BLUFF AND ORLA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3176 10418 3195 10426 3215 10399 3181 10384
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 250DEG 14KT 3190 10414 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
254 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have persisted for much of the
day across southeast New Mexico and the far northern Permian Basin,
with an uptick in activity observed over the past couple of hours
due to diurnal effects as well as support from a 50-60kt 300mb jet
associated with a trough currently lifting toward the Central
Plains. Precipitable water values today range between 1.00-1.25
inches across the western half of the forecast area, roughly one
standard deviation above normal per NAEFS and GEFS ensembles. Thus,
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain
to the west as well as adjacent plains and eastward across the
northern Permian Basin will yield mainly a heavy rain threat with
localized flooding possible, particularly in areas that experience
multiple rounds of storms.  Highs this afternoon still look to be on
track to top out in the mid to upper 80s across most of the area,
with low 90s possible through the Rio Grande and central Pecos River
valleys.  The best chance of precipitation overnight will remain
over southeast New Mexico and the far northwestern Permian Basin,
with activity gradually lifting to the northeast through the night.
Lows are expected to be a few degrees cooler than last night,
ranging from the upper 50s across higher terrain to the middle to
upper 60s elsewhere.

On Thursday, precipitation chances will linger across southeast New
Mexico and west Texas as a weak midlevel trough to the north sinks
slowly southward while ridging currently over east Texas begins to
amplify to the west.  However, available moisture will be on the
decrease through Thursday, resulting in a decreased heavy rain
threat as well as gradually decreasing precipitation chances from
east to west through Thursday night.  Beyond Thursday, conditions
look to remain dry as the ridge further builds westward, and while a
weak trough axis will develop by late weekend into early next week
extending from the Ohio River Valley toward southeast Texas,
currently think any precipitation activity associated with this
feature will remain east of the area. Temperatures are expected to
remain fairly consistent through the extended, with both high and
low temperatures near to just above normal for this time of year
(highs in the 80s to lower 90s, lows in the upper 50s and 60s).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  65  87  64  86  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    63  84  61  84  /  30  30  20   0
DRYDEN TX                      69  92  69  91  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               65  88  63  86  /  20  20  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              60  76  59  77  /  30  30  20   0
HOBBS NM                       61  82  58  82  /  30  30  10   0
MARFA TX                       56  79  54  77  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        65  87  63  86  /  10  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                      66  88  64  86  /  10  20  10  10
WINK TX                        66  88  64  87  /  20  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

27/84

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
215 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-241915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
215 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 /115 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A FEW STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN AND
THE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS ARE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
246 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015

NMZ027-028-TXZ057>059-258-232030-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY NM-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS NM-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TX-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS TX-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR TX-LOVING TX-
246 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN EDDY...NORTHEASTERN
CULBERSON...NORTHWESTERN LOVING AND NORTHWESTERN REEVES COUNTIES
UNTIL 330 PM CDT/230 PM MDT/...

AT 245 PM CDT/145 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OVER WHITES CITY...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARLSBAD...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARLSBAD...LOVING...MALAGA...CAVERN CITY AIR TERMINAL...WHITES
CITY...OTIS...RED BLUFF RESERVOIR AND CARLSBAD CAVERNS NATIONAL PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3171 10457 3231 10451 3239 10391 3172 10396
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 279DEG 15KT 3215 10438

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