Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

969 
WWUS54 KMAF 300422
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1122 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NMC025-300431-
/O.CAN.KMAF.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-150530T0445Z/
LEA NM-
1022 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LEA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE  
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3289 10188 3266 10239 3253 10306 3296 10305
      3296 10195
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 313DEG 14KT 3294 10201 3277 10249
          3261 10311

$$

TXC115-165-300445-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-150530T0445Z/
DAWSON TX-GAINES TX-
1122 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GAINES AND
NORTHWESTERN DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1120 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM GRANDVIEW TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF FAIRVIEW TO
NADINE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEMINOLE...CEDAR LAKE...GRANDVIEW...GAINES COUNTY AIRPORT...
FAIRVIEW...FAIRVIEW IN GAINES COUNTY...PUNKIN CENTER AND MCKENZIE
LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIDLAND.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 3289 10188 3266 10239 3253 10306 3296 10305
      3296 10195
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 313DEG 14KT 3294 10201 3277 10249
          3261 10311

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
800 PM CDT Fri May 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Have done a quick update for SVR T-Storm Watch # 242, and to
update other parameters as necessary based on current conditions
and latest models. 00Z KMAF RAOB came in w/large hail/damaging
winds written all over it...especially steep mid-lvl LR's and dry
PBL layer.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Fri May 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough over the central plains states moves off to the east
this afternoon.  By Saturday an upper ridge will begin to build across
the Western U.S. as the procession of upper troughs comes to an
end.  This will result in decreasing rain chances for the region
as May comes to an end.  This looks to be a significant change in
the wet pattern of the past month... MAF has recorded 12 days with
measurable rain so far this month with more rain expected tonight.
This ridge will slowly shift east with temperatures increasing across
the area into next week.

This afternoon... tonight... and tomorrow looks to be the last good
chance of rain in W TX and SE NM for the foreseeable future.  May see
some afternoon storms due to good moisture and daytime heating...
and a little bit of a dryline across Brewster county.  Good low
level moisture still extends back across the Trans Pecos and SE NM.
Rain chances increase tonight.  A weak cold front is expected to sag
down into the area overnight... storms look to develop along and
behind the front spreading south tonight.  The heaviest rain should
be after midnight.  A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect tonight
and Saturday morning for the Northern and Eastern Permian Basin.
Some of the model qpf shows heavy rain moving down across Gaines and
Martin counties... others not as much.  Have decided to expand the
watch a little westward across these counties.  For now have not
including Ector or Midland counties in the FFA but this could change
if conditions warrant.

Also have to consider the threat of severe storms this afternoon and
tonight.  Most of CWA north of the Pecos River is included in the
Day 1 slight risk.  A shortwave may combine with decent low level
moisture... good CAPE and shear to result in severe storms.  Storms
may begin with a hail threat then transition to strong wind and
heavy rain overnight.  However believe threat of heavy rain greater
than threat of severe wx.

With less rain and clouds around... will have more sunshine.  This
will result in warmer temperatures.  Highs in the 90s return to the
area early next week and continue through the end of the week.  In
the extended the forecast drys out with rain becoming much more
spotty.  A persistent surface trough hangs around the region most of
next week.  This trough and the higher elevations may be enough to
fire off a few storms but coverage will be low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  76  59  81  /  60  60  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              61  76  60  83  /  60  60  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                63  79  59  85  /  40  40  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  69  83  66  86  /  30  50  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           63  80  61  84  /  30  50  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  73  56  80  /  20  30  20   0
HOBBS NM                   62  74  57  80  /  60  60  10  10
MARFA TX                   53  79  54  80  /  20  50  30   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  78  60  83  /  60  60  10  10
ODESSA TX                  68  77  60  83  /  50  50  10  10
WINK TX                    65  81  61  85  /  50  50  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Dawson...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...
     Martin...Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry.

&&

84/44

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
118 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-301830-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
118 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 /1218 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS...THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY EAST
OF THE PECOS RIVER...ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT
FROM MID EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE PECOS
RIVER. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDDAY SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
614 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TXZ074-075-081-300000-
PECOS-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-BIG BEND AREA-
614 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTH CENTRAL BREWSTER AND SOUTHWESTERN PECOS COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM
CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY
AT 614 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN MIDLAND.

&&

LAT...LON 3055 10307 3029 10298 3030 10327 3041 10328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 248DEG 12KT 3037 10319

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
811 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NMZ029-033-300200-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-
711 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM MDT...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 11 MILES WEST OF
CROSSROADS TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF CAPROCK AT 712 PM MDT...MOVING EAST
AT 5 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN MIDLAND.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM MDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3357 10305 3300 10306 3317 10377 3339 10377
      3340 10373 3357 10372
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 259DEG 4KT 3347 10352 3321 10364

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1011 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HAIL             LOVINGTON               32.95N 103.35W
05/29/2015  E1.25 INCH       LEA                NM   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

&&

ANDREW.ARNOLD