Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

018 
WWUS54 KMAF 202005
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

TXC043-202015-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0129.000000T0000Z-150520T2015Z/
BREWSTER TX-
305 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
BREWSTER COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 302 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES NORTHEAST
OF PERSIMMON GAP...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 2994 10315 2994 10295 2979 10291 2978 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 012DEG 6KT 2986 10306

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

44

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1147 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front just north of KMAF,
w/rapidly deteriorating cigs behind. As PBL winds continue to veer
behind the front, isentropic upglide will commence NE-SW, bringing
in LIFR cigs to KMAF/KHOB...IFR to KCNM/KFST...and MVFR to
KINK/KPEQ. Fog will be possible as well, but cigs appear to be the
limiting factor attm. Forecast soundings improve little, if at all, by
the end of the forecast period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT Wed May 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front currently along a line from roughly Aspermont to Tatum
to just south of Roswell will continue its southward push well ahead
of schedule, moving through the area during the morning hours.
Widespread cloudcover will fill in behind the front as it moves
south, and looking upstream, a few showers and thunderstorms
began to develop along and behind the front as it moved through
Lubbock, which could continue into the northern Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains this morning, though no severe weather
is expected with these storms. Temperatures behind the front are
quite cool for this time of year, with early morning temperatures
across the northern Panhandle in the low to middle 40s. The cool
air will continue filtering south behind the front today, thus
have sided with cooler guidance across southeast New Mexico and
the Permian Basin, with highs only expected to make it into the
upper 60s and 70s, with around 80 degrees possible closer to the
Pecos River.

The front will slow its southward progression by this afternoon,
with temperatures across the Lower Trans Pecos and points south
still expected to climb well into the 80s, with some 90s possible
along the Rio Grande.  While forcing along the front itself will not
be great, strong boundary later heating and steepening lapse rates
are expected to be enough to generate convection once again this
afternoon, mainly across the Lower Trans Pecos and far southern
Permian Basin. The Storm Prediction Center has included the
aforementioned area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, with
the primary threats expected to be large hail and damaging winds.
Thunderstorms are possible across much of the remainder of the area
today as well, though initiation will be dependent on how long low
clouds remain entrenched in the wake of this morning's cold front.

Precipitation chances will increase tonight through Thursday night
area-wide as disturbances embedded in the southwest flow aloft move
over the region, interacting with the stalled frontal boundary and
moist low levels, providing ample lift for showers and
thunderstorms. All models generate copious amounts of QPF during
the Thursday- Thursday night time frame, thus, locally heavy
rainfall will be a concern, especially for those locations that
remain saturated from previous rainfall events this week. Ample
cloudcover as well as precipitation on Thursday will keep
temperatures across southeast New Mexico and west Texas quite cool
for this time of year, with highs generally in the 60s and 70s,
around 20 degrees below normal for some locations. The forecast
high for Midland on Thursday of 65 degrees, if verified, would be
a new record low maximum temperature for May 21. The current
record is 68 degrees, which occurred May 21, 1943.

Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday, and continue to climb
through the weekend. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
also remain through the weekend, first as a potent shortwave
ejects across the area on Friday ahead of the larger scale western
CONUS trough, and then ahead of the trough which looks to finally
begin to progress eastward on Saturday. The trough will develop a
positive tilt as it lifts across the region on Sunday, with weak
ridging developing in its wake for Monday and Tuesday. This would
spell a break in precipitation early next week, with temperatures
climbing back into the mid to upper 80s to lower 90s by Tuesday,
much closer to normal for this time of year.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

44

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-210845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015 /242 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING... MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN OR LOWER TRANS PECOS. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS... BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
BUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WIND... AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PECOS TO GARDEN CITY LINE.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
928 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     TORNADO          10 SW BAKERSFIELD       30.79N 102.42W
05/19/2015                   PECOS              TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN

&&

AHASIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
930 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TORNADO          7 SE GIRVIN             31.00N 102.31W
05/19/2015                   PECOS              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO REMAINED IN FIELDS AND PASTURES. NO DAMAGE
            REPORTED.

&&

AMBER.HLUCHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1024 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             2 E BAKERSFIELD         30.89N 102.27W
05/19/2015  E1.25 INCH       PECOS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN QUARTER-SIZE HAIL FELL

&&

AHASIC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
119 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

TXZ081-201900-
BIG BEND AREA-
119 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY AT 119
PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN MIDLAND.

&&

LAT...LON 3018 10288 2991 10280 2991 10315 3019 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 359DEG 6KT 3010 10303