Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

403 
WWUS54 KMAF 060315
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1015 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015

TXC043-377-060330-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150406T0330Z/
BREWSTER TX-PRESIDIO TX-
1015 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
PRESIDIO AND WEST CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 1013 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES EAST OF
BIG BEND RANCH STATE PARK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN PRESIDIO AND WESTERN BREWSTER   
  COUNTIES..INCLUDING THE BIG BEND RANCH STATE PARK AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 2934 10408 2937 10411 2937 10414 2940 10417
      2944 10421 2947 10421 2978 10392 2975 10367
      2931 10371 2930 10400
TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 225DEG 22KT 2950 10391

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

GPM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will persist at all terminals. Currently have gusty SW winds at CNM
and HOB but speeds should diminish over the next couple of hours.
Have a few showers near FST this evening but no lightning reported
in the last 2 hours with this activity. Could see an occasional
lightning strike before convection comes to an end shortly. LLJ
developing across eastern locations tonight will result in gusty
south winds at FST and MAF through much of the night. Could see
MVFR cigs affecting MAF early Monday morning however confidence
still remains too low to include mention attm. Will continue to
monitor and make adjustments to the TAF if needed. Otherwise,
gusty SW winds are expected Monday afternoon, particularly at CNM
and HOB where gusts near 30kt may be possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Abundant heating, topography, and increasing mid level moisture
will combine to create instability and trigger isolated
thunderstorms in the Big Bend this afternoon and evening. CAPE and
shear values are large enough to support marginally severe storms
in that area with hail and gusty winds the primary threat.

The devil is in the details the next few days as models do not seem
to be handling some weather elements well. To start with, looking
at how things verified today, temperatures and winds are a bit
lower than expected while dewpoints are higher. This affects not
only the fire weather potential which is discussed in more detail
below, but also dryline placement and rain potential this week.
Unfortunately it is very difficult to determine how the current
inaccuracies will translate into the forecast, if at all. Guidance
seems slightly high with the winds when compared to the raw model
data across the area but especially at GDP which they show near
wind warning criteria Monday and Tuesday. Will not issue a wind
watch for GDP at this time due to this concern. Lighter winds in
the lower elevations could hold the dryline farther west than
models are currently showing...possibly keeping it in the western
Permian Basin or even southeastern New Mexico. Given the
persistent upper level flow the preference is for a more eastern
dryline placement and thus will continue PoPs for only the eastern
counties.

Things could get interesting this weekend as models are all
showing a deep upper level low moving in from the Pacific, east
along the U.S./Mexico border and into west Texas next Sunday.
There are some differences in timing but they agree on it's
strength which could give us a decent chance for rain.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns will continue to increase this week within
southwesterly flow aloft and several upper level disturbances coming
across the region. A dryline, with very dry air behind it, will also
set up this afternoon and swing back and forth across the area each
day through Thursday.

So far this afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions have not
materialized with rh's staying above 20 percent and winds fairly
light. Models continue to struggle with moisture and wind profiles
which is making fire weather forecasts difficult. The dryline does
look to get a push Monday afternoon through at least NM and the
Guadalupe Mountains. Stronger winds should mix to the sfc and rh's
will fall below 15 percent so will continue the Fire Weather Watch
for this area. Tuesday through Thursday will feature more fire
weather concerns, most likely across the same areas each day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

27

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
201 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-061915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
201 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015 /101 PM MDT SUN APR 5 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THERE ARE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE EDDY COUNTY
PLAINS AND THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND THE VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA.

MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND