High Wind Watch 11, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
409 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Southwesterly flow aloft continues across the region as an upper
trough slowly moves east along the U.S./Mexico border. Meanwhile, a
weak cold front/outflow boundary sits across the northern Permian
Basin this morning with a dryline retreating west over the Trans
Pecos and southern Permian Basin. The front will lift north later
today as sfc low pressure strengthens along the Front Range in
response to the mentioned trough moving east. Very similar to
yesterday, the dryline will mix east across the Permian Basin this
afternoon with dry and windy conditions behind it. A sfc high over
northern Mexico combined with the leeside low will cause a tight
pressure gradient over the region this afternoon. This will lead to
breezy conditions areawide with the strongest winds expected to be
across the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. A Wind Advisory is in
effect for this area as sustained winds over 30 mph will be
possible. The dryline will likely push to the eastern edge our our
CWA border by late afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible along
and east of the dryline and conditions will again be ripe for any of
these storms to become severe.

At the same time, large scale lift will increase across northern
Mexico and far West Texas as the upper trough moves closer. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon
over Mexico and move into the Presidio Valley and Marfa Plateau
during the evening. Strong winds will be possible with these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer. Scattered convection will spread
northeast across the Permian Basin overnight as the upper trough
ejects into the Southern Plains. This activity will move east of the
area fairly quickly Friday morning.

Strong mid level winds associated with the base of the upper trough
will mix down across the area Friday afternoon. This will result
in gusty westerly winds, likely enough for a wind advisory for much
of the region. A High Wind Watch is in effect for the Guadalupe
Mountains where sustained winds will be >40 mph.

A strong subtropical jet across the area today will lead to an
abundance of high clouds keeping high temperatures slightly lower.
Dry and breezy conditions will continue into the weekend as we find
the region in between storm systems. Long range models differ with
the evolution of an upper low expected to cut off from the main flow
early next week. The trend of the models has been to cool
temperatures while increasing rain chances.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WV imagery shows a deep upper trough off the Baja coast, up against
a ridge extending from the Big Bend NW to MT.  SW flow aloft over
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico is drawing a healthy fetch of
subtropical moisture over the region.  Sfc analysis shows the
dryline extending from KLES-KBPG-KST1-K6R6.  Latest models are still
on tap to develop a leeside sfc trough on the Front Range later
today in advance of the Baja system, veering 20' winds to the SW and
increasing them to critical levels, mainly from the Guadalupe's SE
thru the Davis/Apache Mtns.  Even so, RH's will remain abv 15%
everywhere but the SE NM Plains, where a few hrs of critical RH's
will be possible.  Forecast Fire Danger will be high to extreme.
However, critical RH's and 20' winds do not look to coincide for
more than a couple of hours at best, so we'll forgo any warning
products and issue a RFD for the SE NM Plains instead.  We'll leave
out the Guadalupe's, as temps there will be below normal. Further
south, not only are below normal temps expected, but cloud cover is
expected to be rather extensive.

Friday, the Baja trough will swing thru the region, w/even stronger
20' SW winds expected, resulting in critical RH's for much of the
area, especially plains.  Blo-normal temps in the mtns should keep
RH's above critical thresholds there.  However, field reports of
considerable green-up and ERC's below the 50th percentile render
normal Red Flag criteria moot attm.  In addition, rain today/tonight
may dampen things up a bit.  Thus, we'll let the current Fire Wx
Watch continue attm, and re-evaluate w/this afternoon's package.

Critical winds and RH's will be possible thru at least Monday, as a
secondary trough swings thru the area Sunday night.  However, fuel
moistures may once again mitigate critical fire wx conditions, which
will need to be re-evaluated daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  61  81  53  /  10  20  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              87  63  85  56  /  10  30  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                82  55  80  51  /   0  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  86  65  89  59  /  10  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  62  84  55  /  10  30  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  51  69  50  /   0  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  56  78  50  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   71  52  76  43  /  10  30  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  63  83  54  /  10  30  10   0
ODESSA TX                  84  62  83  56  /  10  30  10   0
WINK TX                    84  61  84  51  /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     HIGH WIND WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau.

&&

44/29

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