Flood Watch 1, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
348 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
An upper low can be seen on IR this morning over Srn CA.  This
cut off low will slowly move east with thunderstorm chances
increasing across the area as it approaches.  Currently models are
taking this low across AZ/NM down into Northern Mexico by Thursday.
This track will result in several days of good rain chances for
the region with potential for locally heavy rain.

May also see some severe wx today/tonight mainly across the west.
The far western CWA is in the SWODY1 slight risk... potential for
large hail and damaging wind as storms could have strong updrafts...
will highlight in HWO.  Could see some severe storms again on
Wednesday but should begin to transition into a heavy rain event.
E to SE flow will continue to bring good low level moisture into the
area with dewpts in the 50s and 60s.  Model soundings show PW
increasing to around 1.5 inches for the Permian Basin.  Models qpf
does develop significant amounts of precip beginning tonight out
west.  Plan on issuing a Flash Flood Watch for late tonight through
Wednesday for the western counties.  Expect this watch will be
expanded both in duration and coverage on later shifts as high pops
continue Thursday and Friday.  Thanks neighboring offices for
collaboration.

Temperatures will be affected by all this precipitation.  Significant
amounts of clouds and rain will keep temps down across the west today.
Lower temps expand east into the Permian Basin Wednesday and Thursday
as the rain chances increase.  Readings remain below normal through
Saturday.  Warmer temps return by early next week as forecast dries
out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  85  61  83  61  /   0  10  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                    78  57  74  54  /  20  60  70  60
DRYDEN TX                      88  67  85  66  /  10  10  20  50
FORT STOCKTON TX               86  61  84  59  /  10  20  40  60
GUADALUPE PASS TX              71  54  70  53  /  40  70  70  50
HOBBS NM                       79  59  76  56  /  10  40  70  80
MARFA TX                       78  54  76  52  /  30  40  60  70
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        85  60  83  60  /   0  10  40  60
ODESSA TX                      85  60  81  59  /   0  10  40  60
WINK TX                        84  62  81  59  /  10  30  60  80

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flood Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Flood Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Presidio Valley...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.

&&

84/72

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