Alert archive / New Mexico / Flash Flood Watches in 2015

Flash Flood Watch 12, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

October 4, 2015Loving County, Texas; Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this flash flood watch at Oct 4, 2015, 2:48 AM CDT for Loving County, Texas; Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico. It took effect at Oct 4, 2015, 7:00 AM CDT. It was in force for 20 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 4, 2015, 2:48 AM CDT (07:48 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 4, 2015, 7:00 AM CDT
Expired
Oct 5, 2015, 3:01 AM CDT
In force
20 hr
Issued by
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Flood severity
None

Counties Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Loving County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 156 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 155 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2015-10-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 38 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2015-10-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 1 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
38 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-115 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2204 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
37 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Oct 4, 12:28 AM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 4, 12:28 AM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before
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Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 3, 1:44 PM CDT, 13 hours 4 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
144 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-041845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
144 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015 /1244 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, AND
PERHAPS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS. MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER EAST.  THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS, LARGE HAIL HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THE LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THESE HEAVIER RAINS WILL BE THE
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 3, 8:21 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFLoving54 min
Oct 3, 8:26 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMAFCulberson3 hr
Oct 4, 12:25 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMAFLoving4 hr
Oct 3, 7:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFEddy43 min
Oct 3, 7:49 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMAFEddy3 hr
Oct 3, 8:05 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFEddy55 min
Oct 4, 1:04 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMAFEddy3 hr
Oct 4, 3:26 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMAFLea3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in New Mexico, 2015Flash Flood Watches in Texas, 2015Every flash flood watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.