Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

033 
WGUS74 KMAF 071216
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
716 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

TXC033-415-071445-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0046.000000T0000Z-150707T1445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SCURRY TX-BORDEN TX-
716 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CDT FOR
SCURRY AND BORDEN COUNTIES...

AT 712 AM CDT...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN SNYDER REPORTED 
FLOODING IN TOWN WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HWY 180 
CLOSED BETWEEN AVE M AND AVE Q WITH 2 FEET OF WATER OVER THE ROAD. 
ADDITIONAL STREETS ARE BELIEVED TO BE FLOODED.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY 
RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... 
SNYDER...GAIL...UNION IN SCURRY COUNTY...INADALE... J B THOMAS 
RESERVOIR...LAKE J B THOMAS...HUDD...WINSTON FIELD... 
DUNN...RANDALLS CORNER...HERMLEIGH...FLUVANNA...IRA... MIDWAY IN 
SCURRY COUNTY...KNAPP...ARAH...DERMOTT AND US-180 NEAR THE FISHER-
SCURRY COUNTY LINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 10160 3296 10160 3296 10066 3254 10066

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
Main aviation concerns for the next 24 hours is
low cigs affecting terminals this morning and thunderstorm activity
this afternoon. A large area of showers and thunderstorms continue
to move east of the terminals this morning. Still have a few showers
affecting PEQ and FST however this activity will move east of the
sites over the next few hours. The cold front has sagged a little
further south, resulting in northerly winds at all but FST.
According to model guidance, this front will stall near MAF and FST
this afternoon and will likely serve as the main focus for showers
and thunderstorms later today. Highest confidence for TSRA is at MAF
and FST and decided to include mention late this afternoon through
late tonight. Heavy rainfall will be the main threat and may result
in brief periods of low visibility. Low cigs have been difficult to
track and forecast overnight due to the thunderstorm activity. For
now, will continue to carry MVFR at CNM and IFR at HOB through at
least late morning and continue to monitor trends for amendments.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar is showing an area of moderate to heavy rain in the
northeastern Permian Basin and western low rolling plains.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches have been observed on Texas
Tech mesonet sites in Borden and Scurry Counties which is already
above flash flood guidance. This rain is focused along a weak
cold front that is bisecting the Permian Basin from NE-SW and
where the most widespread rainfall will occur today will depend
on the position of this feature. Additional showers are being
supported by a very slow moving upper level trough moving across
west Texas. Precipitable water values are well above normal so
storms will be proficient rain producers and thus have issued a
Flash Flood Watch for the flooding threat. The greatest flood
potential will be in the eastern portion of the watch area but
with PWATs approaching 2 inches any storm could produce flash
flooding so decided to make the watch large enough to include most
of the CWA except those areas farthest from the upper trough.

Most of the rain is expected today and tomorrow, then will
diminish and shift to the Guadalupe Mountains later this week and
end altogether by the weekend as an upper level high retrogrades
from the southeastern U.S. over into the Central Plains. Well
below normal temperatures today will climb through the next seven
days as subsidence from the upper high increases. GFS and ECMWF
extended MOS guidance are showing highs approaching 100 degrees
early next week but this seems a bit too high. In drought years
deep easterly flow on the southern periphery of the high could
advect hot and dry air in from central Texas but this year there
has been plenty of moisture available so highs in this regime
should hold to the mid 90s.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Ward...
     Winkler.

&&

27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-080900-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
400 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 /300 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT... ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. AS A RESULT...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. IN ADDITION SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND