Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

707 
WGUS74 KMAF 090401
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1101 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

TXC003-173-227-317-329-090615-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-150509T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-MARTIN-MIDLAND-ANDREWS-
1101 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ANDREWS...NORTHERN MIDLAND...SOUTHERN MARTIN...
SOUTHWESTERN HOWARD AND NORTHWESTERN GLASSCOCK COUNTIES...

AT 1052 PM CDT...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WERE MOVING 
OUT OF THE WARNED AREA. HOWEVER...WATER OVER ROADS IN MIDLAND...
GREENWOOD AND STANTON WILL TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO TO RECEDE.
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 
AM CDT. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MIDLAND... 
STANTON AND LENORAH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 10226 3231 10211 3236 10173 3230 10161
      3207 10148 3188 10178 3197 10226

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 PM CDT Fri May 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Dryline across
the eastern Permian Basin will retreat toward the western Permian
Basin this evening and then push back east toward the eastern
Permian Basin later tonight toward sunrise. There is potential for
thunderstorms to develop along the sloshing dryline tonight but
confidence was not high enough at this time to include at any of
the terminals. Will continue to monitor. Low level jet will develop
early this evening and result in gusty southeast winds at KMAF and
KFST through around 3 am CDT. Also included a five hour period of
MVFR ceilings at KMAF tonight from 06z-11z. Gusty west to southwest
winds should develop at all the terminals by mid Saturday morning.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT Fri May 8 2015/

UPDATE...
See updated public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Updated grids to add Tornado Watch # 145 until midnight cdt for much
of the Permian Basin. Increased pops across the Permian Basin for
the remainder of the afternoon and added severe wording to fit
the watch. Increased QPF grids as well.

Updated zones to be sent.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT Fri May 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The special 18Z MAF upper air sounding is showing a pretty strong
cap which no doubt is what is keeping convection suppressed at
this time. This sounding modified for the expected afternoon high
temperature shows there may be a brief window to break through
the cap this afternoon, so will not cancel the watch in the
northern Permian Basin early. If anything does develop it will
likely be along a weak dryline forming in the northwestern Permian
Basin which is showing up on visible satellite as a line of
enhanced cumulus.

Saturday an upper low in the desert southwest will move east into
the Rockies increasing westerly flow and pushing the dryline
farther east so the only PoPs will be in the extreme southeastern
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. Some of the stronger mid
level westerlies will mix into the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Watch remains in effect.

The upper low will move into the north central plains early Monday
sending a weak cold front into the area. Dry air both ahead and
behind the front will allow overnight temperatures to drop below
normal for this time of year Sunday and Monday morning. In fact
Monday will be pleasant all day with a cool start to the morning
and highs forecast to be around 10 degrees below normal.

Tuesday surface high pressure will slide east with return
southeasterly flow bringing a return of moisture and warmer temps.
Models are in pretty good agreement that an upper trough will move
across the southwestern U.S. and combined with the increasing
moisture will give a good chance for showers and thunderstorms
areawide. Rain chances diminish after this trough passes on
Wednesday but backed flow aloft will keep rain chances in the
forecast through the end of next week.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

27/10

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-091930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
230 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015 /130 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE AND A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THESE AREAS. THE MAIN THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAIN RANGE
SATURDAY AND A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE
LOWER TRANS PECOS. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
856 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

TXZ062-090230-
MIDLAND-
856 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 40 TO 55
MPH WINDS AFFECTING NORTHERN MIDLAND COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

A THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER WARFIELD AT
856 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND THE CITY OF
MIDLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3208 10209 3205 10188 3179 10194 3180 10226
      3188 10228 3199 10228
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 229DEG 19KT 3196 10221

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
935 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 PM     HAIL             1 SE MIDLAND            31.99N 102.07W
05/08/2015  E1.75 INCH       MIDLAND            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

0929 PM     HAIL             1 S MIDLAND             31.99N 102.08W
05/08/2015  E1.25 INCH       MIDLAND            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
939 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     HAIL             1 S MIDLAND             31.99N 102.08W
05/08/2015  E1.00 INCH       MIDLAND            TX   PUBLIC

0932 PM     HAIL             VALLEY VIEW             31.94N 101.99W
05/08/2015  E1.00 INCH       MIDLAND            TX   PUBLIC

0938 PM     HAIL             1 S MIDLAND             31.99N 102.08W
05/08/2015  E1.25 INCH       MIDLAND            TX   PUBLIC

&&

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
946 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             MIDKIFF                 31.63N 101.84W
05/08/2015  E1.75 INCH       UPTON              TX   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN MIDKIFF BETWEEN 820 AND
            825 PM CDT.

&&

AKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
947 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 PM     HAIL             GREENWOOD               32.03N 101.90W
05/08/2015  E2.00 INCH       MIDLAND            TX   PUBLIC

&&

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
959 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     HAIL             GREENWOOD               32.03N 101.90W
05/08/2015  E2.00 INCH       MIDLAND            TX   PUBLIC

&&

05