Tornado Warning 15, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
UPPER WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A 500 MB OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEVERE CONVECTION FROM TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. HOWEVER...WITH BACKING WINDS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK. THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEFORE 06Z...
THOUGH NOT NON-EXISTENT AFTERWARD.

HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
WHILE SOUNDING DATA SHOWS RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER...ALL
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP AS THE CONVECTION APPROACHES.
AND...GIVEN THE EXTREMELY SATURATED GROUND IN PLACES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY FIRE DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW.

ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM...AS UPPER FLOW WAVERS BETWEEN QUASI-ZONAL AND
SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND STALL THERE UNTIL MOVING
EAST ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MOISTURE STREAMING OVER
ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  79  66  83 /  80  70  30  40
CAMDEN AR         69  85  69  85 /  90  50  40  40
HARRISON AR       64  79  63  80 /  80  30  40  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  83  68  84 /  90  40  40  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  82  69  85 /  90  50  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     70  82  69  85 /  90  80  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      67  81  67  83 /  90  40  40  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  80  65  81 /  80  50  30  40
NEWPORT AR        69  79  67  83 /  80  80  20  40
PINE BLUFF AR     69  82  69  85 /  90  60  30  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  82  67  84 /  90  40  40  40
SEARCY AR         68  81  67  84 /  80  60  30  40
STUTTGART AR      69  81  68  84 /  80  70  30  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
545 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-261000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
545 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE NATURAL STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE
STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING A NEW
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS.

DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS INCREASE THE LEVELS OF
AREA RIVERS. ARKANSANS ARE REMINDED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. A
FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
452 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ARZ037-038-041-252220-
MONTGOMERY AR-SCOTT AR-YELL AR-
452 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN YELL...SOUTHEASTERN
SCOTT AND NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 449 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MAULDIN...OR NEAR MT IDA...MOVING NORTH AT
35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MT IDA...             ODEN...               MUDDY CREEK WMA...
  MAULDIN...            SIMS...               PENCIL BLUFF...
  HURRICANE GROVE...    GIBBS...              CHULA...
  CEDAR CREEK...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3483 9392 3485 9354 3452 9354 3450 9373
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 166DEG 29KT 3459 9368

226