Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Little Rock, AR

April 9, 2015Independence County, Izard County, Stone County, Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 9, 2015, 6:34 PM CDT for Independence County, Izard County, Stone County, Arkansas. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Apr 9, 2015, 6:34 PM CDT (23:34 UTC)
Expired: Apr 9, 2015, 7:00 PM CDT
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS Little Rock, AR
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Stone County, AR

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Apr 9, 3:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 11.6 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 950 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -28 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 857 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 275 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 270 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.6
Supercell composite: 6.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 9, 3:55 PM CDT, 2 hours 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 9, 3:55 PM CDT, 2 hours 39 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
355 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

ALREADY SEEING CONVECTION DVLP ACRS PARTS OF SWRN/S-CNTRL AR THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE...THE ACTUAL CDFNT WAS ENTERING NWRN AR ATTM...WITH
STORMS ALSO FIRING ALONG IT. BASED ON LATEST SFC DATA AND SPECIAL
SOUNDINGS FM ARND THE AREA...THE WIND FLOW RMNS GENERALLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL WL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED...MAINLY
ACRS PARTS OF SERN AR.

SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA CONT TO RMN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL
TIMING OF THE FROPA THRU THE FA TNGT. CDFNT WL CONT WORKING SEWD
INTO CNTRL AR BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN WL BE OUT OF SERN AR BY
LATE TNGT. SCTD TO NUMEROUS STORMS WL CONT TO DVLP INTO THIS EVENING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT. EXPECT TO SEE A LINE OF STORMS ACCOMPANY
THE FNTL BNDRY ITSELF.

RAIN CHCS WL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FNT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
AREA FM THE W. FAR SERN AR WL SEE A SLGT CHC OF SOME LINGERING
RAINFALL EARLY FRI MRNG...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDS THRU
SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BLDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WL SHIFT QUICKLY
EWD LATER IN THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHCS TO
EVENTUALLY RETURN TO AR HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE LONG TERM WILL BE RATHER ACTIVE...WITH 30-50 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
BELIEVE...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THUS WHATEVER BREAK
THERE MAY BE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED AND THE
PERIOD WILL ROUND OUT IN AN UNSETTLED FASHION.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAIN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...64

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 9, 4:00 PM CDT, 2 hours 34 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
400 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE BEST
CHANCES OF TORNADOES WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WHICH WILL MAKE STORMS
MORE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. ONE TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...
BUT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE RETURN OF
THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

46/56

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 9, 5:05 PM CDT, 1 hour 29 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
505 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

ARZ012-092235-
NEWTON AR-
505 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY UNTIL 530
PM CDT...

AT 503 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR UPPER BUFFALO WILDERNESS AREA...OR 7 MILES
SOUTH OF LOST VALLEY SP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LOST VALLEY SP...     JASPER...
  UPPER BUFFALO WILDERNESS AREA...            PRUITT...
  ERBIE...              WAYTON...             VENDOR...
  SWAIN...              PONCA...              PARTHENON...
  MT SHERMAN...         MOSSVILLE...          MARBLE FALLS...
  LOW GAP...            DIXON RIDGE...        CROSSROAD...
  BOXLEY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3592 9305 3579 9352 3588 9353 3589 9351
      3592 9351 3595 9350 3598 9346 3602 9345
      3612 9318 3612 9316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 244DEG 31KT 3592 9341

64

Special weather statement, Apr 9, 5:06 PM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
506 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

ARZ012-013-021-022-092235-
JOHNSON AR-NEWTON AR-POPE AR-SEARCY AR-
506 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SEARCY...NORTHERN
POPE...SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON AND NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

AT 505 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DILLEN...OR 19 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CLARKSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SMYRNA...             MOORE...
  MINERAL SPGS REC AREA...                    DILLEN...
  BERTHA...             SIMPSON...            TREAT...
  SAND GAP...           RICHLAND CREEK CAMPGROUND...
  PELSOR...             NOGO...               LURTON...
  HAW CREEK FALLS CAMPGROUND...               FORT DOUGLAS...
  BEN HUR...            BASS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3590 9299 3564 9282 3551 9333 3567 9341
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 244DEG 31KT 3565 9320

64

Special weather statement, Apr 9, 5:35 PM CDT, 59 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
535 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

ARZ063-064-067>069-092320-
BRADLEY AR-CALHOUN AR-CLEVELAND AR-DREW AR-LINCOLN AR-
535 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LINCOLN...DREW...
SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND...SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN AND BRADLEY COUNTIES
UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 534 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES EAST OF
WEEKS TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF HERMITAGE TO 4 MILES NORTH OF MORO
BAY...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WARREN...             MONTICELLO...         WILMAR...
  WEEKS...              PLANTERSVILLE...      MORO BAY...
  MORO BAY STATE PARK...                      LANARK...
  LAKE MONTICELLO...    LADELLE...            INGALLS...
  HILO...               HERMITAGE...          HARRELL...
  GREEN HILL...         BRANDON...            VICK...
  VALLEY...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3320 9219 3321 9223 3325 9224 3327 9230
      3325 9232 3328 9236 3327 9243 3332 9248
      3332 9253 3378 9229 3388 9159 3342 9155
      3338 9159 3339 9197 3331 9197 3321 9208
      3320 9213 3317 9212 3315 9216
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 279DEG 29KT 3367 9216 3350 9213
          3336 9235

62

Local storm report, Apr 9, 5:52 PM CDT, 42 minutes before

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Local storm report, Apr 9, 6:07 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

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Local storm report, Apr 9, 6:24 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 9, 10:53 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LZK	Prairie, White, Woodruff	13 days
Apr 9, 3:19 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Grant	31 min
Apr 9, 3:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Calhoun, Clark, Dallas, Ouachita	43 min
Apr 9, 4:18 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Calhoun, Ouachita	32 min
Apr 9, 5:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Newton	30 min
Apr 9, 5:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Newton	29 min
Apr 9, 5:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Newton	48 min
Apr 9, 5:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Clark, Garland, Hot Spring, Montgomery, Pike	33 min
Apr 9, 5:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Garland, Pulaski, Saline	23 min
Apr 9, 5:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Newton, Pope, Searcy, Stone, Van Buren	26 min
Apr 9, 5:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Bradley, Drew	45 min
Apr 9, 5:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Conway, Faulkner, Lonoke, Perry, Pulaski, Saline	49 min
Apr 9, 5:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Clark, Garland, Hot Spring, Montgomery	48 min
Apr 9, 5:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Boone, Marion, Newton, Searcy	45 min
Apr 9, 5:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Conway, Perry, Pope, Saline	25 min
Apr 9, 5:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Cleburne, Van Buren	52 min
Apr 9, 5:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Independence, Jackson	35 min
Apr 9, 6:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Searcy, Stone, Van Buren	44 min
Apr 9, 6:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Bradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Ouachita	47 min
Apr 9, 6:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Faulkner, Lonoke, Pulaski, White	36 min
Apr 9, 6:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Fulton, Izard, Sharp	33 min
Apr 9, 6:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Cleburne, Independence, Jackson, White	30 min
Apr 9, 6:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Cleburne, Faulkner, Van Buren, White	38 min
Apr 9, 6:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Sharp	35 min
Apr 9, 6:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Independence, Jackson, White	50 min
Apr 9, 6:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Fulton, Sharp	10 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.