Severe Thunderstorm Warning 352, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
217 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIFTING NE ACROSS WRN AND SRN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OVER A WARM
FRONT ALSO LIFTING NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED SUB-SVR SO FAR
THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SVR STORMS ACROSS
THE THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE PRIMARY THREAT EXPECTED THIS MORNING
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...THOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SHR THAT
AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE EXTREME SW IF ANY STORM
COULD BECOME SFC BASED. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY
PREVENT MOST STORMS FROM BECOMING SFC BASED UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF MOST OF THE
AREA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NE OVER THE STATE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR SVR
WX WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...OR OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SRH VALUES WILL DECREASE SOME
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY THE INCREASED CAPE AND STEEPER LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...THE INCREASED CAPE AND STEEPER LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DECREASED LOW LEVEL
SRH...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HRS...THE GREATEST SVR WX THREAT WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER TIME...WITH ALL BUT THE SERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA SEEING A
DECREASED SVR THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA. AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT...MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SE THROUGH MOST OF THE STATE...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOW FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT.

LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THU WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR SERN COUNTIES. THIS DRY PERIOD
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT
LIFTS BACK NORTH ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHRA/TSRA
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF CHRISTMAS. A POTENT STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE SW ON SAT...WITH SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. LOOKS LIKE THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE
NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FOR LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL PERSIST INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM
SLOWLY LIFTS NE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS. BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...IN THE ROCKIES TUESDSAY MORNING...WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH A
FRONT STALLED OVER ARKANSAS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH OF ARKANSAS...AND PUSHES THE
FRONT EAST OF THE STATE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SETTLING OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTER ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  44  65  47 /  70  10  10  20
CAMDEN AR         76  51  73  55 /  60  10  10  40
HARRISON AR       67  41  62  39 /  50  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  47  69  51 /  50  10  10  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  48  69  51 /  70  10  10  30
MONTICELLO AR     75  55  73  59 /  80  20  10  40
MOUNT IDA AR      72  44  69  48 /  50  10  10  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  41  63  41 /  60  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        72  45  66  48 /  80  20  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     75  51  71  53 /  70  20  10  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  45  68  45 /  50  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         72  45  66  49 /  70  10  10  30
STUTTGART AR      74  49  69  52 /  80  20  10  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...51

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
417 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ARZ012-021-030-231100-
JOHNSON AR-NEWTON AR-LOGAN AR-
417 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JOHNSON...NORTH CENTRAL LOGAN...
NEWTON AND SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM CST...

AT 416 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF CASS TO
NEAR DENNING TO RATCLIFF...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLARKSVILLE...PARIS...JASPER...LAMAR...SUBIACO...HARTMAN...SCRANTON...
RATCLIFF...TOKALON...UPPER BUFFALO WILDERNESS AREA...DEVILS KNOB...
WALNUT...HINKLE...ROSETTA...PRUITT...LOST VALLEY STATE PARK...SPADRA...
ERBIE...WOODLAND AND HOYT.

LAT...LON 3612 9307 3587 9315 3537 9342 3521 9395
      3523 9392 3532 9391 3531 9381 3542 9380
      3536 9375 3538 9371 3577 9369 3576 9352
      3588 9352 3597 9345 3608 9344 3608 9348
      3612 9348
TIME...MOT...LOC 1016Z 229DEG 44KT 3569 9371 3542 9381 3531 9387

62