Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
251 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUTSIDE OF THE CWA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND SW ARKANSAS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG AN
AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...A NEARLY
STATIONARY WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM FORT SMITH
TO MOUNTAIN HOME. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE LIFTING MORE TO THE NORTH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST...AT THIS
POINT...DID SLOW DOWN THE TIMING OF THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIP. LATEST
RUNS OF HRRR HAS A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND FOLLOWING CLOSE TO WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED. THE LARGEST THREAT WITH THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO POSSIBLE.
THE TORNADO THREAT IS FAIRLY LOW WITH THESE STORMS...WITH FAIRLY
HIGH LCL VALUES. SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS DO SUGGEST THESE MAY FALL
A BIT...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...GENERALLY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AFTER
00Z...WITH THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...BUT TORNADOES WILL BE
LIMITED AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY OUTRACES THE STORMS. CONTINUES TO
LOOK THAT THE HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED NW OF
THE CWA.

LATER IN THE SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH UPPER ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE TROUGH...SOME SMALL
CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO COME BACK A BIT WARMER...THE CHANCES CONTINUE TO
LESSEN. NO ACCUMULATIONS OR WINTER WX HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WILL REFLECT LOWER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO FEATURES IN EXPECTED SPLIT FLOW ACROSS
THE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     78  48  56  36 /  50  80  50  20
CAMDEN AR         83  58  61  42 /  20  40  50  10
HARRISON AR       76  44  55  34 /  50  90  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    81  55  61  39 /  30  70  30  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  81  54  60  39 /  20  70  40  10
MONTICELLO AR     80  56  61  37 /  10  30  70  10
MOUNT IDA AR      80  53  62  35 /  40  80  30  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  77  45  57  35 /  50  90  30  20
NEWPORT AR        78  49  57  34 /  40  80  60  10
PINE BLUFF AR     80  56  58  40 /  10  50  60  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   81  52  60  37 /  50  80  30  10
SEARCY AR         78  51  57  36 /  30  70  50  10
STUTTGART AR      79  55  57  39 /  10  60  60  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...55

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
615 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-261000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
615 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MARCH EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ERUPTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. THESE STORMS ARE IN
ADVANCE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS STORM WHICH IS STILL
LOCATED IN OKLAHOMA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH
THE NIGHT....RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH TIME...AND CHANCES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...AND WILL BE GUSTY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP TO AROUND
FREEZING IN ISOLATED SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. PATCHY FROST
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF ARKANSAS DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

46/56

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>