River Flood Warning 76, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT MOISTURE BACK TO ARKANSAS. ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AND GUST TO 25 KTS OR MORE. EXPECT WIND SHEAR AT LIT. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND END TOWARD DAYBREAK. VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...24/12Z TAF CYCLE

SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE NOTED ACRS THE AREA THIS MRNG...ALONG WITH
OCNL STRATUS. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDS. CONVECTION
WL BCM MORE WIDESPREAD ACRS AR THIS AFTN AND TNGT...WITH CONDS
DETERIORATING. PRIMARILY EXPECT MVFR CONDS BY THAT TIME...WITH IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WHERE STRONGER STORMS OCCUR. BREEZY S/SELY SFC WINDS WL
ALSO BE COMMON THRU MUCH OF THE PD. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
RAIN...FLOODING...AND A FEW TORNADOES LAST NIGHT TO OKLAHOMA HAS
CONTINUED ITS SLOW MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
BEGUN TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE. WRF AND HRRR DISAGREE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT EIGHT HOURS OR SO. THE WRF SHOWS THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AROUND MID DAY...BEFORE
REDEVELOPING AFTER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
HRRR WHICH SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AS PRECIPITATION SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST. WITH
HIGH PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE STATE...THESE TRAINING
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS WITH RAIN RATES TOPPING OUT AT
1.5 INCHES PER HOUR.

ON TOP OF EVERYTHING...A BREEZY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
SUSTAINED SE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
DID GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A POSSIBILITY TODAY AS WELL. MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT FANTASTIC...HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF
1000 J PER KG. WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SE AT THE SURFACE...HELICITY
VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES.

BUT BY FAR THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS...PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS HAVE SEEN
BETWEEN 10 TO 14 INCHES OF RAIN...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 4 TO 6 TIMES
NORMAL. COMBINE THIS WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 TO OVER 2 INCHES...WHICH IS 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...AND HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.

CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE FIRST
ROUND SUNDAY WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS. DO EXPECT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. AGAIN...DO EXPECT THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT DID GO AND ISSUE AND
EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO THE ENTIRE AREA AND GO THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MODELS INDC A WEAK UPR RDG WL SET UP ALONG THE MS RVR VALLEY LATE IN
THE WEEK. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE RMNG IN PLACE ACRS THE MID
SOUTH...SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. A
STRONGER UPR LVL STORM SYS IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE LATE IN THE PD.
KEPT POPS IN CHC CAT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE AS CHGS IN TIMING/STRENGTH
ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYS WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  78  65  79 /  80  50  80  60
CAMDEN AR         68  82  69  84 /  80  90  90  60
HARRISON AR       65  79  62  79 /  80  40  80  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  81  68  82 /  80  80  90  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  68  82  67  82 /  80  60  90  60
MONTICELLO AR     70  83  69  82 /  80  90  90  80
MOUNT IDA AR      68  78  67  79 /  80  80  80  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  80  64  79 /  80  30  80  60
NEWPORT AR        69  80  67  80 /  80  60  80  70
PINE BLUFF AR     68  81  69  81 /  80  80  90  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   65  82  66  80 /  80  60  80  60
SEARCY AR         66  80  68  78 /  80  50  80  70
STUTTGART AR      69  82  69  81 /  80  60  80  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

AVIATION...51

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
915 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ARZ040-241445-
POLK AR-
915 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY UNTIL
945 AM CDT...

AT 913 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF GRANNIS...OR 16 MILES NORTH OF DE
QUEEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WICKES...             VANDERVOORT...        MCCAULEY...
  HATTON...             COVE...               BOGG SPRINGS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3422 9447 3448 9447 3450 9446 3441 9423
      3419 9438 3418 9445 3420 9448
TIME...MOT...LOC 1416Z 208DEG 20KT 3428 9443

58

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1009 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ARZ037-040-241540-
POLK AR-SCOTT AR-
1009 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SCOTT AND NORTHWESTERN
POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM CDT...

AT 1006 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF QUEEN WILHELMINA STATE PARK...
OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF MENA...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  QUEEN WILHELMINA STATE PARK...              OLIVER...
  MOUNTAIN FORK...      MORGAN SPRINGS...     LAKE WILHELMINA...
  LAKE HINKLE...        BEAUCHAMP...
  BLACK FORK MOUNTAIN WILDERNESS...           SHADY GROVE...
  ROCKY...              RICH MTN...           EAGLETON...
  CAUTHRON...           BLACK FORK...         BATES...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3491 9446 3493 9445 3496 9441 3495 9439
      3496 9437 3497 9425 3496 9418 3456 9427
      3459 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 1509Z 189DEG 31KT 3467 9436

58