River Flood Warning 41, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
352 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OVERNIGHT/MONDAY. THIS WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WARM/HUMID AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.

PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME WIDEPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...AND WILL BUILD THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WORKING TOWARD THE LOUISIANA BORDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS RAINFALL...HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE IN THE FORECAST IN
AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OVER TWO INCHES IN THE WEST.
IT IS IN THE WEST WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS OCCURRED THE PAST
THREE DAYS...AND THE GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED. THIS IS WHERE
FLASH FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OF THE CWA AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WITH MOST OF THE CWA REMAINING DRY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OR QUARTER OF THE AREA WHERE SOME
LINGERING CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTH BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS ALL OF
THE CWA BY TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO DROP
FOR ALL OF THE CWA.

THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...WITH
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE STATE FROM THE WEST...SO HAVE
INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO
THU...THEN FURTHER EAST BY THU NIGHT. DO KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SW OVER THE REGION...AND ANY UPPER WAVES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
IN THIS FLOW WILL TRIGGER MORE SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  79  55  74 /  80  50  10  10
CAMDEN AR         70  82  62  77 /  80  60  20  20
HARRISON AR       60  73  48  70 /  90  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  80  59  75 /  80  40  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  81  60  75 /  80  50  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     71  81  63  77 /  80  70  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      66  79  56  73 /  90  30  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  77  51  72 /  80  30  10  10
NEWPORT AR        69  80  57  75 /  80  70  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     70  81  60  75 /  80  70  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   65  79  54  75 /  80  30  10  10
SEARCY AR         68  80  58  75 /  80  60  10  10
STUTTGART AR      70  81  60  75 /  80  70  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
740 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-111000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
740 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AD THUNDERSTORM PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH WINDS AND EVEN SOME HAIL POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST ONES. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT AS WELL AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING AS
A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION LIFTS OUT OF OKLAHOMA. MANY OF THE
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS COULD SEE EVEN MORE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT GIVEN SOME OF THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN OVER 5 TO 8
INCHES OF RAINFALL RECENTLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS MONDAY...WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH PAST THE STATE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE LOUISIANA BORDER.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH. CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51/62

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     HAIL             PETIT JEAN MTN          35.16N 92.93W
05/10/2015  E1.00 INCH       CONWAY             AR   PUBLIC

&&

61

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
757 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

ARZ037-110125-
SCOTT AR-
757 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SCOTT COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...

AT 754 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES WEST OF BEAUCHAMP...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF WALDRON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WALDRON...            OLIVER...             MORGAN SPRINGS...
  LAKE HINKLE...        BEAUCHAMP...          WINFIELD...
  HON...                ELM PARK...           CAUTHRON...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3496 9430 3497 9424 3503 9424 3508 9422
      3497 9398 3475 9429 3482 9440
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 217DEG 27KT 3483 9430

64

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
807 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

ARZ040-041-110135-
MONTGOMERY AR-POLK AR-
807 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POLK AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 804 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BARD SPRINGS
RECREATION AREA TO 2 MILES NORTH OF GRANNIS...AND MOVING NORTH AT 35
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MENA...               CANEY CREEK WILDERNESS...
  WICKES...             VANDERVOORT...        SHADY...
  POLK COUNTY FAIRGNDS...                     OPAL...
  MENA INTERMOUNTAIN AIRPORT...               MCCAULEY...
  LAKE MENA...          HARTLEY...            GRANNIS...
  COSSATOT RIVER STATE PARK...
  BARD SPRINGS RECREATION AREA...
  ROARING BRANCH NATURAL AREA...              SHADY GROVE...
  SHADY LAKE RECREATION AREA...               POTTER...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3461 9434 3466 9388 3434 9394 3435 9424
      3420 9424 3419 9425 3418 9438 3420 9439
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 195DEG 32KT 3442 9403 3429 9431

64

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
900 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

ARZ030-037-038-110230-
LOGAN AR-SCOTT AR-YELL AR-
900 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN YELL...NORTHEASTERN SCOTT
AND CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 856 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GRAVELLY...OR 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DANVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DANVILLE...           STONEHOUSE REC AREA...
  MUDDY CREEK WMA...    MT MAGAZINE...        GRAVELLY...
  FOURCHE VALLEY...     BLUE MTN LAKE...      WING...
  WAVELAND...           WALTREAK...           UNION HILL...
  NOLA...               MACEDONIA...          HAVANA...
  HARVEY...             CORINTH...            BRIGGSVILLE...
  BLUFFTON...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3522 9368 3508 9333 3474 9364 3485 9384
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 211DEG 31KT 3490 9366

64