Alert archive / Arkansas / River Flood Warnings in 2015

River Flood Warning 40, NWS Little Rock, AR

May 10, 2015Yell County, Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this river flood warning at May 10, 2015, 4:03 PM CDT for Yell County, Arkansas. It took effect at May 10, 2015, 9:22 PM CDT. It was in force for 3 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 10, 2015, 4:03 PM CDT (21:03 UTC)
In effect from: May 10, 2015, 9:22 PM CDT
Expired: May 14, 2015, 8:34 AM CDT
In force: 3 days
Issued by: NWS Little Rock, AR
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

County Yell County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Petit Jean River at Danville (DANA4). The gauge peaked at 26.88 ft at May 12, 2015, 1:00 AM CDT.

Action stage: 20 ft
Minor stage: 20 ft
Moderate stage: 24 ft
Major stage: 26 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 07260500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 10, 3:52 PM CDT, 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 10, 3:52 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
352 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OVERNIGHT/MONDAY. THIS WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WARM/HUMID AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.

PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME WIDEPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...AND WILL BUILD THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WORKING TOWARD THE LOUISIANA BORDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS RAINFALL...HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE IN THE FORECAST IN
AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OVER TWO INCHES IN THE WEST.
IT IS IN THE WEST WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS OCCURRED THE PAST
THREE DAYS...AND THE GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED. THIS IS WHERE
FLASH FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OF THE CWA AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WITH MOST OF THE CWA REMAINING DRY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OR QUARTER OF THE AREA WHERE SOME
LINGERING CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DROP SOUTH BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS ALL OF
THE CWA BY TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES TO DROP
FOR ALL OF THE CWA.

THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...WITH
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE STATE FROM THE WEST...SO HAVE
INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO
THU...THEN FURTHER EAST BY THU NIGHT. DO KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SW OVER THE REGION...AND ANY UPPER WAVES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
IN THIS FLOW WILL TRIGGER MORE SHRA/TSRA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  79  55  74 /  80  50  10  10
CAMDEN AR         70  82  62  77 /  80  60  20  20
HARRISON AR       60  73  48  70 /  90  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  80  59  75 /  80  40  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  81  60  75 /  80  50  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     71  81  63  77 /  80  70  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      66  79  56  73 /  90  30  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  77  51  72 /  80  30  10  10
NEWPORT AR        69  80  57  75 /  80  70  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     70  81  60  75 /  80  70  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   65  79  54  75 /  80  30  10  10
SEARCY AR         68  80  58  75 /  80  60  10  10
STUTTGART AR      70  81  60  75 /  80  70  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...62

Hazardous weather outlook, May 10, 11:39 AM CDT, 4 hours 24 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 10, 11:58 AM CDT, 4 hours 5 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 10, 12:25 PM CDT, 3 hours 38 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 10, 1:04 PM CDT, 2 hours 59 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 10, 1:43 PM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 10, 1:55 PM CDT, 2 hours 8 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 10, 2:08 PM CDT, 1 hour 55 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 9, 7:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Lonoke, Prairie	25 min
May 9, 9:45 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LZK	Johnson, Logan, Newton	3 hr
May 10, 12:27 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LZK	Boone, Johnson, Logan, Marion, Newton, Pope and 2 more	4 hr
May 10, 1:51 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Cleburne, Stone, Van Buren	29 min
May 10, 2:05 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Cleburne, Stone, Van Buren	40 min
May 10, 2:16 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Johnson, Logan, Newton, Pope	44 min
May 10, 2:36 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Cleburne, Independence, Stone, White	24 min
May 10, 2:57 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Johnson, Logan, Newton, Pope	48 min
May 10, 3:01 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Cleburne, Independence, Jackson, Sharp, Stone	29 min
May 10, 3:05 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Logan, Scott, Yell	25 min
May 10, 3:26 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Logan, Scott, Yell	17 min
May 10, 3:32 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Independence	43 min
May 10, 4:27 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LZK	Boone, Johnson, Logan, Marion, Newton, Pope and 2 more	2 hr
May 10, 9:04 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LZK	Perry	4 days
May 10, 9:19 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LZK	White, Woodruff	33 days
May 10, 9:33 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LZK	Jackson, Woodruff	26 days
May 10, 11:55 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Johnson, Newton	60 min
May 10, 11:58 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Scott	47 min
May 10, 12:16 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LZK	Johnson, Logan, Newton	3 hr
May 10, 12:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Boone, Marion, Newton, Searcy	60 min
May 10, 12:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Boone, Marion, Newton, Searcy	45 min
May 10, 1:04 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Pope, Searcy	46 min
May 10, 1:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Pope, Searcy, Van Buren	47 min
May 10, 1:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Pope	45 min
May 10, 2:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Yell	27 min
May 10, 4:00 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LZK	Pope, Yell	65 hr
May 10, 4:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Sharp	16 min
May 10, 5:29 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Conway	46 min
May 10, 5:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Conway, Perry, Pope, Van Buren, Yell	38 min
May 10, 6:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Conway, Van Buren	25 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Arkansas, 2015 Every river flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.