Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1237 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS SEEN UNDER THIS
ACTIVITY. DO THINK SOME SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE MENTIONED THIS WITH
SOME TEMPO GROUPS. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCTS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THERE WILL ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
SCATTERED TO MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDDAY SAT. THE
EXACT TIMING FOR EACH TERMINAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOWEVER. SOME
PATCHY FOG OR LOW CIGS COULD ALSO BE SEEN BY AROUND SUNRISE SAT
MORNING.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANA IS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER
CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
SATURDAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY...AND UPPER
MIDWEST MONDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL OVER ARKANSAS LATE
MONDAY.

SEVERAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NORTH
MISSOURI TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. WITH WARM MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL
REMAIN WEST OF ARKANSAS TODAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
STATE MONDAY...PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE STATE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT NEAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY
START TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     81  66  82  67 /  50  50  60  40
CAMDEN AR         84  69  84  69 /  40  30  40  30
HARRISON AR       79  65  78  65 /  40  60  60  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  69  83  69 /  60  40  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  82  69  84  69 /  50  40  60  30
MONTICELLO AR     85  68  84  70 /  30  20  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      82  69  81  68 /  60  50  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  65  79  66 /  40  60  60  50
NEWPORT AR        82  67  83  69 /  50  50  60  30
PINE BLUFF AR     83  69  84  70 /  40  30  40  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   81  68  80  67 /  50  50  60  50
SEARCY AR         82  68  83  68 /  50  40  60  30
STUTTGART AR      83  68  84  69 /  40  30  50  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-
DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE A STORM OR TWO MAY BRIEFLY
BECOME STRONG...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING..

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SPREADING
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY...UNTIL
THE FRONT CLEARS THE STATE.

THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A
CONCERN AT THIS POINT...FURTHER RAINFALL FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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