Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1044 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION EAST OF THE DELMARVA SATURDAY MORNING AND
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE AREA BEFORE A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CIRRUS WERE ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PRECIP HAS
ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD...MAKING INTO THE
LOWER POTOMAC HIGHLANDS/CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY/FOOTHILLS MID
AFTERNOON. P-TYPE AT ONSET LOOKS LIKE SNOW OR SLEET...BUT MAY MIX
WITH RAIN AS WELL ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE EVENING. SEE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW
FOR HEADLINE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
WE WILL BE UPGRADING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA...ESSENTIALLY
WASHINGTON AND ALLEGANY COUNTY IN MARYLAND...MUCH OF THE EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND INTO FREDERICK COUNTY VIRGINIA. WE
EXPECT A SW TO NE STRIPE OF SNOW TO OCCUR AND BRING 5 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS UPGRADED AREA. IN ADDITION...END TIMES WILL
BE ADJUSTED FOR SOME OF THE REMAINING ADVISORY AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A TIGHT
GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

PREV...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FROM
EITHER LATE THIS AFTN OR EVE INTO MID-LATE MRNG SAT. A WINTRY MIX
IS POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA W/ FREEZING
RAIN THE OVER-ARCHING THEME...THOUGH ACCUMUATLING SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NRN AND WRN HALVES OF THE CWA...INCLUDING JUST
INTO THE WRN DC/BALT SUBURBS. IMMEDIATE DC/BALT AREAS SHOULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET MIX LATE TONIGHT BUT THE
ACCUMULATION/DURATION WILL BE CUT DOWN BY THE WAVERING FREEZING
RAIN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE NESTLED RIGHT AROUND/NEAR I-95 THRU
THE DURATION OF THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE U.S. IN THE XTND PD. LOW PRES MOVG
OFF THE DELMARVA WL BE DRAWING COLDER AIR INTO THE MID ATLC AS IT
EXITS. I-95 MRNG RA XPCTD TO MIX W/ SN DURG THE AFTN WHILE POP
CHCS DCRS. W OF I-95 MRNG MIXED PCPN WL BE COMING TO AN END DURG
THE AFTN. XCPTN WL BE THE WRN UPSLOPE AREAS.

HIGH PRES ACROSS THE AREA SAT NGT/1ST PART OF SUN WL QUICKLY MOVE
E AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE AREA SUN NGT AS THE LONG WV
PATTERN RMNS IN THE WRN RDG/ERN TROF THAT HAS BEEN WRITTEN ABT
MANY TIMES IN JAN. WINTRY PCPN WL BE PSBL SUN AFTN W OF I-81...BCMG
LKLY OVR THE AREA SUN NGT. LGT ACCUMS WL BE PSBL.

COLD AND DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLC DURG THE MIDWK. HIGHS IN THE
U20S/M30S W/ LOWS RANGING FM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHLANDS TO
THE UPR TEENS/M20S IN THE CITIES. ANOTHER CLIPPER COULD IMPACT THE
AREA AT THE END OF NEXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...UNTIL LATE AFTN TDA. A
WINTRY MIX WILL ARRIVE MID TO LATE EVE FOR THE DC/BALT METRO -
SLIGHTLY EARLIER FOR AREAS S AND W. THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER INTO
MIDDAY SAT...W/ MAINLY AND FZRA/IP MIX N AND W OF DC...MORE FZRA
FOR THE DC AREA AND S/IP/FZRA FOR BALT AND NORTH.

CIGS DOWN INTO IFR CAT XPCTD SAT MRNG...IMPRVG DURG THE AFTN. VFR
SAT NGT AND SUN...THEN LKLY DIMINISHING SUN NGT AS THE NEXT LOW
PRES AREA MOVES INTO THE MID ATLC.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...SLY THEN TURNING SE AS HIGH
PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST. A STORM SYSTEM OFF DELMARVA WILL SWITCH
WINDS TO NLY AND GUSTY OVER THE WATER INTO EARLY SAT.

SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SAT AFTN AS LOW PRES DEPARTS AREA AND HIGH
PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS.

NO MARINE HAZARDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     SATURDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ003.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ501-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR VAZ025-026-036-037-503-504-508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     SATURDAY FOR VAZ027-029>031-038>040-050-051-501-502-507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     SATURDAY FOR VAZ052>054-505-506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     SATURDAY FOR VAZ028.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ505-506.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ051-052.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ053.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ050-055-501>504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539.

&&

BPP/GMS/WOODY!

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