Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
250 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL REMAIN STALLED IN THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE
PUSHING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM US AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
BRIEFLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THAT FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN STORY...SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTN-EVENING. SCT TSTMS ON GOING
AS OF 18Z...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN WV NORTH INTO PA. STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER AN AREA OF SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...UNDER A
PASSING SHORTWAVE. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED OF DECENT ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH
NOT GREAT...BULK SHEAR AROUND 20-25 KTS ALSO STARTING TO SHOW NEAR
THE MASON-DIXON LINE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THOUGHT THAT SCT
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.
WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FLOW OVER WESTERN AREAS...COULD
POSSIBLY SEE A MORE LINEAR FEATURE FORM CENTRAL MD INTO NORTHERN
VA WITH EMBEDDED PULSEY SVR. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR WX...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT. PWATS OF BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES WOULD ALSO RESULT IN
HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH THE STORMS LOOK TO BE MVG QUICK ENOUGH TO
LIMIT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

THREAT FOR SVR TAPERS OFF BY 02-03Z. A STILL MOIST ATMO COUPLED
WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY...BUT FORCING ALOFT FROM A PASSING
SHORTWAVE AND LIFT FROM A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD KEEP ISO-SCT
SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. LOWS
TONIGHT REMAIN AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

YET ANOTHER DAY OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND A SLIGHT RISK
IMPACTING OUR CWA. SIMILAR AIRMASS AS HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE
REGION THRU THE WEEKEND REMAINS IN PLACE...GENERATING ANOTHER DAY
OF INSTABILITY VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO
BE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS...20-25 KTS. RIDGE ALOFT
WEAKENS ENOUGH TO ALLOW MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO DIP SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN VA. SOME QUESTION OF WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALIGNS...BUT THE OTHER FACTORS IN PLACE WARRANT ENOUGH OF A SVR
THREAT. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PSBL HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS. PWATS GENERALLY
1.8-2.0 INCHES SO ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT AGAIN WITH THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS
MINIMAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT ATTM.

TEMPS WARM INTO THE 90S ON MONDAY. COMBINING WITH DEW PTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S LOOK TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES UPPER 90S TO
100 IN ISOLATED SPOTS ALONG THE PIEDMONT AND I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM US AND WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY TAKING HOLD...CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT
MONDAY EVENING AND WE SHOULD BE QUIET OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
SULTRY UNDER THE RIDGE'S INFLUENCE WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
70S. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE INFLUENCE TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORCING ISN'T GREAT BUT
ENOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS AGAIN BEING THE
MAIN THREAT. HEAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW 90S EXPECTED. THAT FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ENDING UP A BIT COOLER
THAN MONDAY NIGHT...SOME AREAS SHOULD SLIP BACK INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY BEGINS WITH STALLED COLD FRONT (NOT AS HOT FRONT)
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. WHILE TEMPERATURES ON
EITHER SIDE OF COLD FRONT WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...DEWPOINTS ON NORTHERN SIDE OF FRONT ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
LOWER. THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. HEAT...HUMIDITY...AND FRONT IN REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTN/EVE
TSTMS CHCS ACROSS AREA SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING STILL REMAINS...WHICH COULD LIMIT INTENSITY OF TSTMS.

FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT NEAR OUR AREA THU THROUGH SUN. THIS
WILL KEEP TSTMS CHCS IN OUR AREA EACH AFTN/EVE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
HOT EACH DAY...WITH TEMPS AOA NRML...THOUGH NO EXTREME HEAT. WIND
FIELD ALOFT DOES STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGING OVER SE
STATES IS SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SETS UP A BELT
OF STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER OUR AREA...WHICH IF JUXTAPOSED WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TSTMS FORMING THIS
AFTN...GENERALLY 20-03Z. HAVE TEMPO BEST TIMING INTO THE
RESPECTIVE TAFS. STRONG/VRB WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY TSTM. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
PSBL LATE TONIGHT...WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

ANOTHER COUPLE ROUNDS OF TSTMS WILL BE PSBL ON MON AND
TUE...BRINGING YET AGAIN THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL...AND
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS ALSO SUB-VFR CONDS IN ANY
AFTN/EVE TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THRU MONDAY. SCT TSTMS
WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THIS EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY
WHICH COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS.

CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE THREAT OF SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY ESP AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AGAIN POSSIBLY IN EXCESS
OF 34 KTS.

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUE TO BE DAILY AFTN/EVE
TSTMS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...SEARS/RCM/MSE
MARINE...SEARS/RCM/MSE

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