Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
420 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE
METROPOLITAN AREAS AND FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW ADEQUATE MIXED LAYER CAPES IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VA...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE TO WESTERN MD. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALSO BACKED IN THESE AREAS
WHICH WILL AID IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE AND SHEAR. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW INVERTED-V SUBCLOUD LAYERS INDICATIVE OF
MICROBURST/DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS A LOCALIZED
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE FAST
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

FOR SOUTHERN MARYLANDF...CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE BUT
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH 00Z. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THESE
AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT SEVERE THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM DUE
TO THE LATER ARRIVAL TIME AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE LEFTOVER FOR A TIME. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD ALSO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 60S AND 70S...WARMEST ALONG I-95 AND WITHIN THE BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON DC METRO AREAS.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
MORNING...TIMING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID TO
LATE MORNING THUS HAVE LEFT POPS IN FROM I95 AND EAST FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DONE AFTER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME LINGERING EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MD AS CDFNT
MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...CLEARING EXPECTED. PLEASANT AND
TRANQUILE WEATHER WED-WED NIGHT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
RETURN FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS NEARING 20 C
SHOULD SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPS TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 90S...AND
THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE UPPER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...IN THIS PATTERN YOU CAN OCCASIONALLY GET ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ROUNDING THE RIDGE...SO THAT POTENTIAL WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF HOT AND HUMID AIR FOR
STORMS TO FEED ON SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ALL
TERMINAL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IMPACTS AND HAVE FIRST
INITIATED VCTS IN THE TAFS FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING -TSRA FROM 21Z
OVER THE WEST TO 23-03Z OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES...HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY
TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.

MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT KBWI AND KMTN.

WLY FLOW BECOMES SLY THU-FRI GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS.
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS LATER
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WHICH MAY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF SMW'S.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND FALL BELOW
SCA LEVELS TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE WATERS AT THE SURFACE
LATE THIS WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SCA GUSTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL VALUES REACHED MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS AT
ANNAPOLIS THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THIS
EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE. WILL ALLOW THE EVENING SHIFT TO TAKE A CLOSER INSPECTION
AND CONSIDER AN ADVISORY FOR SENSITIVE LOCATIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ536-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LFR/KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KRW
MARINE...LFR/KRW/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
441 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W SHARPSBURG          39.46N  77.79W
06/08/2015                   WASHINGTON         MD   911 CALL CENTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1500217

LFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
523 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     TSTM WND DMG     W FAIRFAX STATION       38.80N  77.33W
06/08/2015                   FAIRFAX            VA   911 CALL CENTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1500218

LFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
640 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE RIVERSIDE         38.90N  78.20W
06/08/2015                   WARREN             VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF STONEWALL JACKSON
            HIGHWAY AND BROWNTOWN ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1500219

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
650 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ESE FREDERICK         39.42N  77.37W
06/08/2015  M59 MPH          FREDERICK          MD   AWOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1500220

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
712 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW EDINBURG          38.82N  78.57W
06/08/2015                   SHENANDOAH         VA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREE DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 11 APPROXIMATELY 1/2 MILE
            SOUTH OF TOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1500221

LEE