Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
243 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

WX STORY FOR THE RMNDR WL BE THE PTNL FOR RW/TRW. ONE STORM HAS
DVLPD IN NERN ALLEGANY CO...ALONG W/ SCT RW OVR THE MTNS. THESE
ARE MOVG SLOWLY ESE. LK YDA THE WIND FIELD IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
DVLPMNT OF SVR STORMS GIVEN THE LGT WINDS ALOFT. CAPE LOOKS TO BE
ARND 1000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTN/ERLY EVE BUT VERY LTL SHEAR. A PULSE
SVR TSTM IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO...BUT MOST LKLY BRIEF HVY RA
W/ SUB SVR GUSTS.

AFTR THAT NO PROBS W/ THE OVRNGT PD. LGT FOG WL AGN BE PSBL. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 55-60 RANGE..SLTLY WARMER IN THE CITIES AND COOLER
IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...

FNT IS XPCTD TO DISSIPATE OVR THE MID ATLC THU THEN WK INDUCED
HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA. PERHAPS SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA WL SEE
SOME HIGH CLDS AS A RESULT OF THE LOW PRES AREA OFF THE GA/SC
CST. HIGHS GNRLY ARND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE AMONG THE
MOST TRANQUIL OF THE PERIOD...YET STILL FEELING A LITTLE MORE LIKE
SUMMER THAN SPRING. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. ITS EFFECTS
ON THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A SURGE OF HIGHER PWATS BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH LATE
FRIDAY. THERE WON/T BE MUCH FORCING TO TAP INTO IT THOUGH...AND IT
APPEARS ANY PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION TIED TO THE TERRAIN...AS LOCATIONS EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED.

AS WE SAW THIS MORNING...MOIST LOW LEVELS (DEW POINTS AROUND 60F)
AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO FOG FORMATION AROUND DAWN. WHILE THIS
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS INDICATE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR UNDER THE RIDGE. SOMETHING TO
KEEP IN MIND FOR THE TIME BEING AS FOG WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON SUBTLE
INFLUENCES. WITH VERY MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS...LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BOTH MORNINGS. HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S FRIDAY.

HEAT AND DAILY ISOLATED AFTERNOON T-STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN WX STORY FOR THE LONG TERM...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF RIDGING AND A DECENT MOISTURE FETCH FROM GOM AND LOW OFF CAROLINA
COAST. MOST DAYS WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 80S...WITH MONDAY THE WARMEST
(HIGH TEMPS M/U 80S)...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME
TUESDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THE PERIOD...WHICH
WILL KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS IN M/U 60S...AND MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY FOR
MAY. COULD START APPROACHING RECORD HI MINS TEMPS AT A SOME
LOCATIONS SUN/MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AFTN CU HAS DVLPD...ALONG W/ SCT RW OVR THE APLCHNS. THESE ARE
MOVG TO THE ESE AND COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS BTWN 19Z AND
01-02Z. THESE ARE NOT XPCTD TO PRODUCE GUSTS INXS OF 30KT.

LGT FOG PSBL OVRNGT...ESPECIALLY AT IAD/MRB/CHO. THEN VFR FOR THU.

SUBVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FAVORING THE MORE TYPICAL FOG PRONE AREAS.
CURRENT INDICATIONS THAT BETTER FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT LITTLE TO NO WX IMPACTS FRIDAY. S/SE WINDS
UNDER 10 KT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT NEAR AFTERNOON
T-STORMS...WHERE BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT AND THU. SCT TSTMS ARE PSBL LATE
THIS AFTN/THIS EVE WHICH COULD PROMPT ISSUANCE OF AN SMW.

LITTLE TO NO WX IMPACTS ON THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY
NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT SE WINDS LESS
THAN 15 KT...AND LIKELY LESS THAN 10 KT MOST OF THE TIME.

WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO NOT EXPECTING SCA
CONDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/MSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
152 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-071600-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
152 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053-
055-501>506-071600-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
NORTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE-CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-
BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-
WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
152 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
342 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             1 SE RESTON             38.94N  77.33W
05/06/2015  M0.88 INCH       FAIRFAX            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1500111

ADS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
344 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HAIL             1 SSE CENTREVILLE       38.83N  77.43W
05/06/2015  M0.75 INCH       FAIRFAX            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1500112

ADS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             2 S HERNDON             38.94N  77.39W
05/06/2015  E1.00 INCH       FAIRFAX            VA   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1500114

ADS

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