Gale Warning 12, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY BEFORE BUILDING
OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY AND A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEWPOINTS THAT BEGAN THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN THE 50S ARE NOW
ABOUT 10-15 DEG LOWER IN SOME AREAS...WHICH HAS SLOWLY/GRADUALLY
BEEN DROPPING TEMPS DOWN FROM THE 50S/60S DOWN INTO THE 40S IN
RECENT HRS. THE BASE OF A POTENT UPPER UPPER LOW NOW PASSING
OVERHEAD - THE LOW WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA UP ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND.
BESIDES A DISSIPATING LOWER STRATUS DECK...THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY
IN THE EARLY STAGES OF MIXING DOWN A PORTION OF THE GUSTY LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD. SOME STABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER PREVENTING MORE
THAN A FEW RANDOM GUSTS...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE QUICKLY POST-DAWN.
GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
HRS AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND THE HIGHER GUSTS MIX DOWN FROM THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER.

THE GUSTY WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ADD A BIT OF A
CHILL BACK INTO THE AIR AND ALSO PREVENT MUCH OF A WARM-UP THIS
AFTN. HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE L50S FOR MOST AREAS...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO AVG BUT WELL BELOW YESTERDAY'S AND MONDAY'S VALUES.

AFTER A SOLID DAY OF DRY/GUSTY WINDS...DEWPOINTS WILL BE DOWN INTO
THE 20S AND 30S AND WHILE THE WINDY UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT...THE AFTERMATH WILL BE
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. DECOUPLING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK
DOWN INTO THE 30S AND NEAR-FREEZING FOR ISOLATED LOCALES BEFORE DAWN
MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER STARTING OFF THE DAY NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...TEMPS WILL SOAR
INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY. A SOLID 10-15 MPH
DOWNSLOPING WLY WIND THAT PICKS UP MID MRNG WILL INCREASE TEMPS
ACROSS THE SHEN VLY AND APLCN VLYS WELL INTO THE U60S AND
L70S...WHILE THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA KEEPS MORE OF A MODERATED
RANGE. WINDS WILL DROP OFF A BIT INTO THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL REGIONS
W/ MORE OF A SLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND - ALLOWING A BIT OF ONSHORE
FLOW TO KEEP TEMPS MORE STABILIZED. SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS DECKS WILL
BE SLIDING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS WELL...KEEPING THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA A BIT COOLER THAN THE WEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS...TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY...FIRST ACROSS
NORTHERN MARYLAND AS WELL AS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE
METROPOLITAN AREAS IN THE MORNING...AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THESE
AREAS. FARTHER NORTH...MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO...WITH
50S ACROSS MOST AREAS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING NOTICEABLY COLDER CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY AND DESPITE SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW CLIMO. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THERE MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL MIX DOWN GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGES LATER THIS MRNG AND INTO THE EARLY EVE HRS. BEFORE THEN...A
FEW RANDOM GUSTS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE WILL AFFECT THE AREA AS A WAVE
OF 4-6KFT STRATUS ALSO MOVES OVER THE AREA BUT LARGELY DISSIPATING
AS IT MOVES EAST. SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND QUIETS DOWN THE SFC/LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS KCHO. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
DESPITE COOLER AIR OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM OVERHEAD WILL MIX DOWN GUSTY WINDS IN THE LOW-END GALE RANGES
THIS AFTN. INTERMITTENT SCA GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FROM EARLY THIS
MRNG...THRU THE DAY AND THEN SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON MON...KEEPING WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND BELOW SCA LEVELS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE WATERS LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>532-538>540-542.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ533-534-537-541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ535-536.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS

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