Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Baltimore/Washington

776 
WGUS71 KLWX 190408
FFSLWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1208 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MDC005-025-510-190600-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150519T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BALTIMORE MD-BALTIMORE CITY MD-HARFORD MD-
1208 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT FOR
CENTRAL BALTIMORE AND NORTHWESTERN HARFORD COUNTIES AND THE BALTIMORE
CITY...

AT 1204 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS THE 
WARNED AREA. HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN BALTIMORE 
COUNTY...AFFECTING AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN. 
THIS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. 
 
GLEN ARM AT MINE BANK RUN IS ELEVATED AND THE ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY 
CAUSE IT TO RISE ABOVE ITS FLOOD STAGE OF 8 FEET. AT 8 FEET...WATER 
WILL COVER THE ACCESS ROAD TO TALMAR. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BALTIMORE...BEL AIR...MORGAN STATE UNIVERSITY...UNION SQUARE...
GUILFORD...WOODRING...TURNERS STATION...HOWARD PARK...ARMISTEAD
GARDENS...BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR...BACK RIVER...LOCUST POINT...CAMDEN
YARDS...ROLAND PARK...FALLSTAFF...BOLTON HILL...MILLERS ISLAND...
CANTON...COCKEYSVILLE AND FELLS POINT.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3955 7636 3926 7641 3924 7638 3920 7645
      3922 7646 3920 7650 3928 7659 3929 7661
      3926 7658 3927 7663 3926 7663 3920 7655
      3921 7658 3928 7678 3936 7686 3951 7687
      3972 7679 3972 7640

$$

ADS

934 
WGUS71 KLWX 190532
FFSLWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
132 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MDC025-190540-
/O.CAN.KLWX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150519T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARFORD MD-
132 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HARFORD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ALL ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3946 7641 3926 7641 3924 7638 3920 7645
      3922 7646 3920 7650 3928 7659 3929 7661
      3926 7658 3927 7663 3926 7663 3920 7655
      3921 7658 3928 7678 3938 7672 3947 7659
      3950 7650

$$

MDC005-510-190600-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150519T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BALTIMORE MD-BALTIMORE CITY MD-
132 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT FOR
WESTERN BALTIMORE AND BALTIMORE CITY...

AT 130 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.  THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY 
OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD 
STILL OCCUR.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BALTIMORE...MORGAN STATE UNIVERSITY...FELLS POINT...UNION SQUARE...
HOMELAND...PIKESVILLE...GUILFORD...WOODRING...TURNERS STATION...M AND
T STADIUM...GWYNNS FALLS...HOWARD PARK...ARMISTEAD GARDENS...JOHN
HOPKINS UNIVERSITY...BEECHFIELD...CLIFTON PARK...DRUID HILLS PARK...
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR...JOSEPHINE LEE AND SPARROWS POINT.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3946 7641 3926 7641 3924 7638 3920 7645
      3922 7646 3920 7650 3928 7659 3929 7661
      3926 7658 3927 7663 3926 7663 3920 7655
      3921 7658 3928 7678 3938 7672 3947 7659
      3950 7650

$$

ADS

667 
WGUS71 KLWX 190558
FFSLWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
158 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MDC005-510-190608-
/O.EXP.KLWX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150519T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BALTIMORE MD-BALTIMORE CITY MD-
158 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BALTIMORE  AND BALTIMORE
CITY WILL EXPIRE AT 200 AM EDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT.

LAT...LON 3946 7641 3926 7641 3924 7638 3920 7645
      3922 7646 3920 7650 3928 7659 3929 7661
      3926 7658 3927 7663 3926 7663 3920 7655
      3921 7658 3928 7678 3938 7672 3947 7659
      3950 7650

$$

ADS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
853 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING UNDER A 500MB
RIDGE. INSTABILITY IS HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ML CAPE
1K-2K J/KG. THE SHEAR IS STILL VERY LOW DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND THEREFORE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BEEN SEVERE. MOST
STORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND MOVING
SLOWLY DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8 INCHES. LUCKILY
STEERING FLOW IS WESTERLY SO STORMS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSING BUT
SLOWLY.

TWO MORE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FOR NRN MD TONIGHT. A
MORE ORGAINIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND EASTERN PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. AN AREA OF CONCERN
IS NORTH-CENTRAL/NE MD AS PAST STORMS PRODUCED 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN
IN A SHORT AMT OF TIME. REPORTS WE HAVE SEEN ARE NUISANCE
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS. RIVERS
SEEM TO BE REACTLY SLOW ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE ANY ISSUES AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING THIS EVENING AS IT IS HARD TO SEE
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

PREV DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND QUITE HUMID AGAIN WITH LOWS
SIMILAR TO...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN...THIS MORNING.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE AGAIN IN THE LOW/MID 80S...BUT THE MITIGATING FACTOR IS
TIME-RELATED...WITH THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST...A MAJOR HINDRANCE
TO PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. POPS WERE LOWERED WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND KEPT AT LESS THAN 50/50 WEST OF THE METRO AREAS. PWATS
ARE ALSO NOT AS IMPRESSIVE TOMORROW...AND THERE IS MORE STEERING
FLOW...SO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT DECREASES TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING JUST EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY TUES EVENING. MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LACKING IN ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING LENDS TO ANY
PCPN ACTIVITY TUES EVENING BEING DRIVEN BY SFC INSTABILITY AND
LIFT PRODUCED BY THE COLD FRONT. AS SUCH...SCT SHOWERS AND MAYBE
AN ISO TSTM PSBL INITIALLY TUES EVENING...BUT WILL QUICKLY TAPER
POPS OFF AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA ALONG WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING.

DRY WX BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AND LASTING THRU WED AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN....WITH THE
REGION REMAINING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AIDES IN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH SCT CU PSBL. INCREASING CLOUDS WED NIGHT
WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN.
OVERRIDING PCPN COULD POSSIBLY MOVE IN BY LATE WED TO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY TILL AFTR
DAYBREAK THURS MORNING.

CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LVLS...LOWS 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES TO OUR SOUTH MOVES OFFSHORE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE S AND SE OF THE CWA.
SHOWERS LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW PRES...
WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS MOMENT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FRI AND INTO SUN... BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW INCREASES MOISTURE TO THE REGION
FOR SUN... AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON TSTMS. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON SUN INTO MON. SOME SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MON AS WELL. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR
70S TO LOW 80S FOR FRI AND SAT...IN THE LOW 80S FOR SUN... AND IN
THE UPR 80S FOR MON.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE ACTIVITY BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE
VSBYS TO DROP TO SUB-MVFR. MULTIPLE ROUNDS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
BWI/MTN.

LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO BWI/MTN EARLY TUES MORNING AS A BOUNDARY
MOVES SOUTHWARD. KEPT CIGS AT MVFR FOR NOW. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
PATCHY FOG THOUGH OVERCAST SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST MAY KEEP
THAT FROM BEING A BIG ISSUE. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCTD TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA THROUGH EARLY EVENING TODAY.

VFR CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NW WINDS WED 10-15
KTS WED AFTN...PSBL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
PSBL THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SMW CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS BCMG MORE LIKELY TUES NIGHT THRU WED MORNING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND MAYBE LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC. SCA GUSTS PSBL THRU WED AFTN...WITH ALL WATERS BCMG SUB-
SCA BY WED NIGHT AND REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW. RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS MAY BE BROKEN AT DCA AND IAD TODAY /MAY 18TH/ AND COULD
BE APPROACHED TOMORROW MORNING TOO. RECORD HI MINS FOLLOW...

SITE...MAY 18TH.........MAY 19TH.........

DCA....68 (1995*).......70 (1986/1962)...
BWI....68 (1900/1896)...75 (1877)........
IAD....66 (1995)........66 (1969)........

*ALSO IN 1953...1943 AND 1900.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JCE
NEAR TERM...JCE/HAS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...JCE/SEARS/HAS/IMR
MARINE...JCE/SEARS/HAS/IMR
CLIMATE...LWX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
429 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-191000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
429 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053-
055-501>506-191000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
NORTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE-CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-
BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-
WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
429 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.