Wind Advisory 9, NWS Lubbock, TX

Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hockley County, TX, King County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Motley County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

028 
WWUS74 KLUB 172101
NPWLUB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
301 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

TXZ021>042-180000-
/O.CON.KLUB.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-151118T0000Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIONA...BOVINA...FARWELL...DIMMITT...
HART...TULIA...SILVERTON...QUITAQUE...MEMPHIS...CHILDRESS...
MULESHOE...LITTLEFIELD...OLTON...PLAINVIEW...CEDAR HILL...
MATADOR...ROARING SPRINGS...PADUCAH...HACKBERRY...MORTON...
LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...RALLS...CROSBYTON...LORENZO...SPUR...
DICKENS...DUMONT...FINNEY...GROW...GUTHRIE...DENVER CITY...
PLAINS...BROWNFIELD...TAHOKA...O'DONNELL...GRAHAM...POST
301 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
  NEAR 50 MPH.

* TIMING...THE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 6
  PM...THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...DRIVERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OF HIGH PROFILE
  VEHICLES...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
  LOOSE OBJECTS MAY ALSO BE BLOWN AROUND AS PROJECTILES. LOCALIZED
  AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST ARE EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
412 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ENE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK TO SKIRT ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRUCKIN AS IT
HEADS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AS OF 9Z...COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT SOUTH
OF RATON WHERE LIGHT SNOW WAS REPORTED AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE FROPA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE CWFA BY LUNCHTIME.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE...WELL...WINDY. TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ALMOST AREA WIDE. THE EXCEPTION BEING STONEWALL AND
KENT COUNTY WHICH SHOULD STAY IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...SPEEDS MAY TOY WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA THOUGH
AT THIS TIME...THE RISK APPEARS LOW TO MODERATE...CERTAINLY NOT
THE 50 PCT REQUIRED FOR A WATCH. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED WIND
ADVISORY TO HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARD. WINDS SHOULD RAMP DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
SUCH...WITH THE CAA...SOME CHILLY TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON TAP
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST.

ONE FINAL ITEM FOR COMMENT WITH REGARD TO THIS MORNING.  FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME WEAK INDICATIONS OF WHAT
APPEARED TO BE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TODAY UP IN THE NORTHWEST.  THIS
MAY ACTUALLY BE SIMPLY DRIVEN THROUGH DYNAMICAL COOLING GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.  WHILE GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE
WARM...WE MAY SEE A BIT OF A SLUSHY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NWRN SNOW BAND BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY.

.LONG TERM...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ANCHORED BY MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTH-EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS/GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PROLONGED STINT OF DRY
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THESE UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL SEND A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...THE FIRST
COMING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. RATHER WEAK FORCING ALOFT WILL ONLY BRING A MODEST DROP
IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
FALLING ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S SEEN
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10-15
MPH.

AFTER A QUICK ROUND OF LEE TROUGHING/SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK WELL INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY 70S
FRIDAY...A MUCH STRONGER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE PARENT UPPER
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A MUCH STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
SUSTAINED NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REACHING 25-35 MPH FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT INTO
THE 40S SATURDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING LEADING TO LOWS IN THE 20S
TO LOW 30S SUNDAY MORNING. THE LACK OF ANY REAL MOISTURE RETURN
IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME CHARACTERIZED BY NUMEROUS FRONTS
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS DESPITE THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT.

WILL THEN BEGIN TO WATCH FLOW ALOFT ATTEMPT TO BACK SOUTHWESTERLY
AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK AS RENEWED ENERGY SKIRTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO STEADILY REBOUND
TOWARD AND POSSIBLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>042.

&&

26/31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
450 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

TXZ021>044-172300-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
450 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS EARLY THIS
EVENING AS LIFT FROM A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INCREASES ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE
ONCE THEY CROSS THE DRYLINE...WHICH AT 445 PM EXTENDED FROM AN
OLTON TO LEVELLAND LINE. EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND NORTH OF TEXAS
HIGHWAY 114 THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. ISOLATED
TORNADOES...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. AS THE STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND
ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME
THE PRIMARY THREAT. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA UNTIL 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.