Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
657 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS AS DRYLINE REMAINS POSITIONED FROM NEAR OR
JUST EAST OF TURKEY TO MATADOR TO RALLS TO O'DONNELL. STRONGEST
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM NEAR CEE VEE BACK TO CROSBYTON
WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE NEAR POST TO LAKE ALAN
HENRY. ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM LEVELLAND TO
BROWNFIELD PUSHING EAST HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 60+ MPH
WIND GUSTS...LIKELY RESULTING IN BLOWING DUST AND SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN
THEIR RELATIVELY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OVERALL.
NONETHELESS...WILL SEE SOME CB IN FLIGHT ROUTES IN ALL DIRECTIONS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST OF KCDS OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BLOWING NEAR 15-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS THIS EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING BY MIDNIGHT
AND VEERING NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NO DETRIMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS KICKING UP LOCALIZED AREAS OF DUST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
TRANSLATES FROM WY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE RED FLAG SETUP HAS MORE OR LESS FIZZLED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THE NORTHWEST HAS ACCUMULATED
SOME RED FLAG MINUTES TODAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. HOWEVER WE WILL
KEEP THE WARNING IN PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST FOR NOW GIVEN THE
INCREASING THREAT OF HIGH BASED STORMS WITH DRY
LIGHTNING/DOWNBURST POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. FURTHER EAST...WILL CANCEL RED FLAG AS IT APPEARS
VERY UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL MAKE CRITERIA. STILL...THE TSTM THREAT
EXISTS. HAVE INCREASED POPS WEST OF THE DRYLINE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT FOR WHAT MAY END UP AS HIGH BASED THUNDERVIRGA. EAST OF THE
DRYLINE...NEAR A TRIPLE POINT IN THE SERN PANHANDLE...POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED TO SOLID CHANCE TO LIKELY. DRYLINE WILL ATTEMPT TO
RETREAT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AS DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND KNOCKING OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM THE HIGHS
OVER VALUES SEEN TODAY.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RECOVER ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS
SWINGING AROUND TO THE EAST. MOISTURE/HIGH THETA-E AIR WILL MOSTLY
STAY TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY BUT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. A LITTLE BIT OF AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC
LIFT MAY GARNER SOME PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEARLY NON EXISTENT DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE.
THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL NOT SUBSTANTIALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE
REGION UNTIL SATURDAY.

THE DRYLINE SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO FAR EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BACK UNTIL SUNDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE DEEP TROUGH. MODELS SHOW WINDS AT 500MB BACKING AS
FAR TO THE SSE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL TAKE ON AN
INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO/SOUTHWESTERN US. ANALOG GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT
NUMBER OF SEVERE EVENTS OCCURRING. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
AS MUCH AS IT CAN THIS FAR OUT IN A SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRENCE FOR
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH AT THE MOMENT...SUNDAY SHOWS THE MOST
PROMISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  40  71  36 /  20  10   0   0
TULIA         88  45  75  39 /  20  20   0   0
PLAINVIEW     88  46  76  41 /  20  20   0   0
LEVELLAND     87  46  78  42 /  20  20   0   0
LUBBOCK       89  50  80  44 /  20  20   0   0
DENVER CITY   87  47  77  44 /  20  20   0  10
BROWNFIELD    87  48  78  45 /  20  20   0   0
CHILDRESS     94  56  84  46 /  50  20   0   0
SPUR          89  56  83  47 /  20  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     91  62  87  49 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>023-027-
028-033-034-039.

&&

31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
747 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

TXZ021>044-100100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
747 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS EVENING
ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISK IS ACROSS THE
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 1 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT ARE REQUESTED TO
ACTIVATE IF POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
814 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NW WHITE RIVER LAKE   33.54N 101.17W
04/08/2015  M63 MPH          CROSBY             TX   MESONET

            REPORTED BY WEST TEXAS MESONET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1500070

SCOBB

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