Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
123 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID WITH FOCUS TURNING TO SEVERE
WEATHER OPERATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES WHERE A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A SHARP MOIST
TONGUE SURGING NORTH THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY THIS MORNING COMPLETE
WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALREADY UNDERWAY NEAR A LINE FROM ABI-SWW.
CONCERN IS THIS CONVECTION WILL BLOSSOM INTO AN MCS IN THE HOURS
AHEAD AS IT STEERS NE AND SENDS OUTFLOW W-NW INTO OUR SRN ROLLING
PLAINS. IF THIS HAPPENS...THEN THIS OUTFLOW SHOULD COLLIDE WITH A
SHARPENING DRYLINE AND PERHAPS LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN OUR SE ZONES PROVIDED THE OUTFLOW IS NOT TOO GREAT
IN DEPTH. OTHERWISE...OUR BIGGEST CONCERN FOR SVR TSTORMS
INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES WILL TAKE AIM IN OUR NERN COUNTIES ALONG
A SLOW MOVING BACKDOOR FRONT THAT AS OF 1530Z STRETCHED FROM PALO
DURO CANYON SE TO QUITAQUE...NORTHFIELD AND SWEARINGEN. THIS FRONT
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO STALL BY EARLY AFTN. CONTINUED MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR
1000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE BY MID- AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE
RATES. PROGGED 0-3KM HODOGRAPHS JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONT ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AOA 20 KNOTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD READILY ACQUIRE LL
ROTATION AND POSE A DISTINCT THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
OTHERWISE...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE IN SHORT SUPPLY TODAY
GIVEN AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW TRENDING NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS NEW
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO LATER TODAY. WE STILL EXPECT SOME HIGH BASED
STORMS AND VIRGA WITH MICROBURSTS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS UNFOLD AND SQUEAK OUT AT LEAST A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE.

.LONG TERM...
PROBABLY THE MOST SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED IS THE EFFECTS
OF OUR UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO OUR WEST TAKING A BIT MORE OF A PAUSE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY.  GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WE STAND A BIT
BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ON THE SYSTEM AS
IT SLOWLY TRANSLATES ACROSS SRN OKLAHOMA INTO TUESDAY.  AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED MENTION OF RAIN INTO TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...NORTHERLY UL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN.  BY
FRIDAY...WE COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNING BY NEXT SUNDAY WHICH COULD BE OUR NEXT
SHOT AT PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THAT THIS IS DAY 8...IT IS JUST
BEYOND OUR VALID FCST TIME BUT NEVERTHELESS IT COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  54  38  61 /  30  70  40  10
TULIA         47  55  40  62 /  40  70  50  20
PLAINVIEW     48  55  41  61 /  30  70  50  20
LEVELLAND     46  58  41  61 /  20  60  40  20
LUBBOCK       48  58  41  61 /  20  60  50  20
DENVER CITY   45  63  41  61 /  20  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    47  63  42  61 /  20  50  30  20
CHILDRESS     55  57  45  64 /  60  70  60  30
SPUR          53  65  45  62 /  30  60  60  30
ASPERMONT     56  68  46  62 /  30  60  60  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

93/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1112 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TXZ021>044-271615-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1112 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE EAST OF A DRYLINE. VERY LARGE HAIL TO
BASEBALL SIZE...DOWNBURST WINDS TO 70 MPH...A FEW TORNADOES...AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE
STORMS. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT
WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS GREATEST...ALTHOUGH MUCH DEEPER
INSTABILITY IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS MAY ALSO FOSTER A TORNADO
THREAT. FARTHER WEST ON THE CAPROCK...HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE A FEW MICROBURSTS
WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. FARTHER SOUTH...A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING.