Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
331 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND...THE WORK WEEK IS ROARING TO A START. A COLD
FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...JUST
ENTERING AMA AS OF 20Z. WE ALSO HAVE A SURFACE LOW FEATURE OVER NEW
MEXICO. THIRD INGREDIENT...AMPLE MOISTURE. AS OF 20Z...WE ARE SEEING
DEWPOINTS IN 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...EVEN INTO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY FIRING ALONG
THE TX/NM BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SFC LOW AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS. THERE IS THE SET UP.

THE HRRR AND TTU WRF HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE BREAKOUT OF THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH SHOW A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP BREAKING OUT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
BY THIS EVENING AND SPREADING IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE MODELS SHOW THE
HEAVIEST DURATION OF RAIN TO BE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PWAT VALUES ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE...SO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. HAVE PAID ATTENTION
TO ONE NOTABLE FEATURE PRESENT ON THE GFS AROUND THE 6Z TIME
PERIOD...AN ENHANCED AREA OF DIVERGENCE OVER THE LUBBOCK AREA THAT
MAY PROVIDE FOR BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF RAINFALL. THIS QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THE FRONT AND SFC LOW EXIT THE AREA...THUS TAKING WITH
IT THE RAINFALL. HAVE UPDATED THIS FORECAST TO HAVE THE DRYING TREND
START IN THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
OUT THE DAY. HAVE LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH BOTH OF THE EXITING FEATURES LATE
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...
PRECIP WILL STILL BE ONGOING LATE TUES/EARLY WED AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROF AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL HELP AID IN LIFT BEHIND AN
ALREADY PASSED FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE TROF
LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE
SOUTH BY MID WED IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE TROF AND THIS FLOW
WILL DOMINATE AT LEAST THRU LATE WEEK. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE WE SIT ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND JUST EAST OF A TROF.
RAIN CHANCES SEEM TO BE ALL BUT COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES WITH THE CENTER OF THE 594 DM
HIGH RIGHT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES MAY WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE FORECAST BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO RETROGRADE PLACING THE WEST TEXAS REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALLOWING TERRAIN INFLUENCED CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE IN OUR
DIRECTION. UNTIL THEN THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  69  58  84 /  80  40  20  30
TULIA         61  68  59  82 /  80  50  30  30
PLAINVIEW     62  69  61  82 /  80  60  30  30
LEVELLAND     63  73  61  84 /  80  50  30  30
LUBBOCK       64  73  62  83 /  80  60  40  30
DENVER CITY   66  77  63  85 /  80  50  30  30
BROWNFIELD    64  76  62  85 /  80  60  30  30
CHILDRESS     66  73  64  85 /  90  80  50  30
SPUR          65  75  63  85 /  90  80  50  30
ASPERMONT     68  82  66  88 /  80  80  60  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ022>026-028>032-
034>038.

&&

74/51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
200 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TXZ021>044-071900-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
200 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY
DEEP...MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER LOCAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ASKED TO MONITOR THE
AREA FOR FLOODED ROADWAYS AND REPORT THEM TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TXZ035-062300-
LUBBOCK TX-
526 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LUBBOCK COUNTY UNTIL 600
PM CDT...

AT 523 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES WEST OF THE LUBBOCK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT....WITH ANOTHER
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE SOUTH PLAINS MALL...BOTH MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

LUBBOCK...SHALLOWATER...IDALOU...LUBBOCK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
TEXAS TECH UNIVERSITY AND NEW DEAL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3368 10205 3383 10186 3383 10174 3358 10157
      3340 10191
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 227DEG 12KT 3364 10191

23

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TXZ023-024-029-030-062315-
SWISHER TX-HALE TX-FLOYD TX-BRISCOE TX-
541 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FLOYD...SOUTHERN
BRISCOE AND EASTERN HALE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 539 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINES OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORM EXTENDING FROM NEAR SILVERTON TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ABERNATHY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLAINVIEW...SILVERTON...QUITAQUE...LOCKNEY...PETERSBURG...VALLEY
SCHOOLS...AIKEN...SOUTH PLAINS...CLAYTONVILLE...AND CAPROCK CANYON
STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3438 10097 3385 10154 3385 10179 3428 10172
      3454 10132
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 227DEG 12KT 3416 10150

23

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