Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS St. Louis, MO

926 
WWUS53 KLSX 182211
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
511 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

ILC027-189-182221-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-150618T2230Z/
WASHINGTON IL-CLINTON IL-
511 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CLINTON AND NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3835 8958 3850 8971 3874 8948 3873 8915
      3849 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 235DEG 24KT 3855 8940

$$

KANOFSKY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015

TC Bill has taken a right turn and based on its current track and
pressure fall analysis should move just north of Fort Smith AR
this evening, to just south of Flippin, Arkansas (KFLP) by 12z
Friday. The most recent guidance is in good agreement that the low
will continue to track east-northeast Friday and Friday night and
the track will be a bit further south than previously progged and
slightly faster. The general consensus it the low will remain
south of the CWA moving across extreme southeast Missouri Friday
evening and near the Ohio River later Friday night. The overall
ramifications are the northward extent of heavy rainfall will be
damped southward a bit with the northern gradient through the St.
Louis region. The track also shunts the severe weather potential
to south of our area.

The overall scenario suggests that the current band of rain
centered through eastern MO will continue to shift east northeast
this evening and weaken some as the LLJ veers, and there may be a
bit of a lull in precipitation in some areas across southeast MO
this evening. Later tonight however the southerly LLJ backs with
the approach of TC Bill and this combined with the ascent with the
system in the northern and eastern quadrant, will bring another
wave of rain back into the area from the southwest. Within the
overall precipiation area there has been a lack of thunder owing
to weak instability and think that will remain the case. The lift
associated with TC Bill, system relative convergence, and the
southerly LLJ will continue to focus heavy rainfall to the
northeast and east of the east-northeastward moving circulation -
thus centered across southeast MO and southern IL. Current
thinking is another 3-5 inches within this corridor where the
threat of flash flooding will be highest. Given the faster speed
of the system, I have dropped the Flash Flood Watch for parts of
central MO for Friday night and if the fast ECMWF is correct more
adjustments and removal of counties will probably be warranted.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015

I have kept some low chance pops from southeast MO into southwest
Illinois early on Saturday morning but I really think that all the
precipitation will be to the east. Clearing skies and strong warm
advection in the wake of Bill on Saturday should lead to a good
warm-up with highs well into the 80s and lower 90s.

We will begin to see another chance of showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday night and this threat will persist through the first part
of next week, namely across the northern half of the CWA. Broad
troffing aloft from the upper MS Valley into the northeast U.S.
favors a pesky wavering west-east front and attendant threat of
showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. The uninhibited
air mass south of the front should be seasonably hot with highs in
the 90s.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2015

Remnant surface low of Bill over southeastern OK late this morning
will move northeastward through northwestern AR tonight, and into
southeastern MO Friday afternoon. First wave of rain was moving
through the St Louis metro area late this morning and will move
through COU this afternoon. A band of showers and thunderstorms
will move through UIN early this afternoon. There may be a break
in the showers this evening, but another wave of showers with a
few storms should move through COU and the St Louis metro area
late tonight and Friday morning. Cloud ceilings heights should
lower into the MVFR catagory this afternoon, and into the IFR
catagory late tonight. The surface wind will back around to a sely
direction this afternoon, then to an e-nely direction late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: Rain should continue this afternoon with a
brief thunderstorm possible as well. The cloud ceiling will likely
drop into the MVFR catagory this afternoon as the low levels
saturate. There may be a break in the rain this evening, but more
rain is expected late tonight and Friday. The cloud ceiling should
lower into the IFR catagory late tonight, then rise back into the
MVFR catagory Friday afternoon. The swly surface wind will back
around to a sely direction this afternoon, then to an ely
direction late tonight.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-
     Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St.
     Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-
     Washington MO.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR Boone MO-Callaway
     MO-Cole MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR Bond IL-Calhoun
     IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
     Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-
     St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
413 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-191130-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
413 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH 700 AM SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

SEVERAL POINTS ON THE MERAMEC...ILLINOIS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS
WILL BE RISING TO MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AS WELL AS ANY
FLOODING.

GLASS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
421 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CATAWISSA               38.42N  90.78W
06/18/2015  M2.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

TILLY