Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS St. Louis, MO

531 
WWUS53 KLSX 102340
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
640 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

ILC005-027-051-102350-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-150510T2345Z/
FAYETTE IL-BOND IL-CLINTON IL-
640 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL CLINTON...
EASTERN BOND AND SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM
CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM.

LAT...LON 3860 8947 3872 8960 3873 8960 3898 8934
      3881 8914 3880 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 228DEG 40KT 3890 8923

$$

TILLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
433 PM CDT Sun May 10 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 431 PM CDT Sun May 10 2015

Have heavily leaned towards the afternoon runs of the HRRR for
convective trends heading into the early evening hours. N-S band of
convection is plowing east at 40-45 kts, and will likely be exiting
eastern sections of our CWA shortly after 00z. After an early
evening lull in activity convection should then return to the
CWA...with threat likely a combination of the activity now
increasing along cold front over eastern KS as well as convection
redeveloping just north of Red River.

Believe that this SE OK activity will be the dominate convection
for our area overnight, as current activity will be intensifying
the low level boundary draped across the ARKLATEX, with this dome
of rain-cooled air providing lift to increasing low level jet that
will be transporting very moist air into the region from the
southern Plains. This area will also be in a favorable area of
upper level divergence tied to RRQ of upper level jet.

Once current line of convection exits area, uncertain about
additional severe weather potential overnight. Current activity
as well as latest upstream convection will be putting a big bite
in the instability that will be available, although large scale
shear of 30-50kts still certainly suggests some severe weather
potential. In addition...while some decent rainfalls are likely
over southern sections of the CWA, believe the aforementioned
outflow boundary will keep the heaviest rain threat anchored over
AR...and south of our CWA.

Truett

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 431 PM CDT Sun May 10 2015

Convection should press east and exit the region during the day
on Monday as cold front pushes across the CWA. I've held onto much
higher PoPs than guidance for the early part of the morning on the
western edge of the expected precip shield (generally from near
Cuba thru STL to near Carlinville), but then quickly wind them
down to the SE of STL during the late morning and early afternoon
hours. Any severe weather potential will be strongly tied to
morning convection trends, but SWODY2 still looks reasonable that
greatest threat will be in our far southeast counties, where the
AMS will stand at least some chance of destabililzing before fropa
occurs.

As unseasonably strong upper level low spins its way across the
Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday, it will drag much cooler air
into the area. This should result in a dry Tuesday with temps a
bit below average, as highs will primarily be in the 60s. Ridging
in the wake of the departing low will mean more tranquil weather
by midweek, with temperatures moderating into the 70s.

Another upper level system will mean a return of unsettled weather
heading into the latter half of the week. There is a large
discrepency in the medium range solutions regarding the location and
movement of this feature especially heading into next weekend, but
with all solutions suggesting a frontal boundary remaining over
the area forecast will mention a chance of thunderstorms in most
areas during the Thursday-Sunday time frame.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun May 10 2015

Line of thunderstorms will reach KCOU by around 20Z, then KSTL by
22Z. Expect thunder threat to last about 2 hours, but limited
instability will preclude widespread threat of any severe weather. Latest
model runs continue to show an area of rain, with little to no
thunder expected, will form overnight and move through the TAF
sites until around 12Z. Ceilings may drop to 2000 feet as rain
ends early Monday morning. Ceilings will then improve as drier
air moves in and winds back to westerly by late Monday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions until around 22Z when an line
of thunderstorms will move through KSTL. Thunder threat will last
about 2 hours, then an area of rain will move in overnight. No
appreciable instability with this area of rain, so thunder threat
is small. Rain will likely end by around 12Z Monday. Ceilings may
drop to around 2000 feet as the rain ends, however winds will
continue to back, bringing in a drier airmass which will help
ceilings lift and scatter out by 18Z Monday.

Browning

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     66  74  52  69 /  80  80   5   0
Quincy          61  68  46  65 /  70  30   5   0
Columbia        57  69  47  68 /  70  20   5   0
Jefferson City  58  71  47  69 /  70  20   5   0
Salem           68  76  53  68 /  90  80  10   0
Farmington      63  75  50  69 /  80  80  10   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
441 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-111200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
441 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EARLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A
LESSER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS ON MONDAY...WITH SEVERE STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY HIGH WINDS OR HAIL THEY
OBSERVE TONIGHT.

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
539 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     TSTM WND GST     FREEBURG                38.43N  89.91W
05/10/2015  M53 MPH          ST. CLAIR          IL   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
547 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNW BETHALTO          38.91N  90.05W
05/10/2015  M43 MPH          MADISON            IL   AWOS

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
607 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND GST     HIGHLAND                38.74N  89.68W
05/10/2015  E40 MPH          MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
609 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     TSTM WND GST     BREESE                  38.61N  89.52W
05/10/2015  E40 MPH          CLINTON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0608 PM     HAIL             BREESE                  38.61N  89.52W
05/10/2015  E0.50 INCH       CLINTON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
610 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     TSTM WND GST     AVISTON                 38.61N  89.61W
05/10/2015  M52 MPH          CLINTON            IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
614 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     TSTM WND GST     ST. JOHN                38.71N  90.35W
05/10/2015  U0 MPH           ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            10 SHINGLES BLOWN OFF OF ROOF. EIGHTEEN 2 INCH TREE
            LIMBS DOWNED.

&&

DYE