Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS St. Louis, MO

942 
WWUS53 KLSX 182057
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

ILC013-083-MOC113-183-182107-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-150818T2100Z/
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-LINCOLN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-
357 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN...
SOUTHWESTERN JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTH CENTRAL ST.
CHARLES COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3900 9027 3880 9066 3895 9082 3917 9053
      3917 9031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 231DEG 36KT 3887 9073 

$$

TILLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
656 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST PERIODS.
AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL SWING THROUGH NEB TODAY BEFORE IT
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPENS OVER IA/MN. A SECONDARY VORT MAX
THEN MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON WED/WED NIGHT AND
DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH MO/IL. LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF SH/TS, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. MOST MODELS AGREE ON ~30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BY 00Z, SUGGESTING THAT A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SHEAR VALUES THEN INCREASE
MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT AND WED, BUT THE INSTABILITY IS MUCH LOWER
UNTIL WED AFTN, AND EVEN THEN IT IS SPATIALLY LIMITED TO THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT
ON WED AND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO TAP INTO
40-50 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
WED AFTN. PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF ON WED NIGHT WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS LOOKS RATHER BRISK BY MID-AUGUST
STANDARDS, AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES (AROUND 5-10 DEG
BELOW AVERAGE) ARE EXPECTED ON LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING.
AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S MIGHT BE A TO SURPRISE EARLY MORNING
RISERS ON THURSDAY...A SURPRISE TO ANYONE WHO HASN'T SEEN THE
WEATHER FORECAST.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM: (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY FOR THU-FRI UNTIL THE NEXT
TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SH/TS TO THE AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

LOOK FOR RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST ON THU/FRI, A
WARM-UP ON SAT/SUN WHEN WARM/MOIST AIR IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SUN/SUN
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR SUN NIGHT INTO
MON.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

RADIATIONAL FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KSUS AND KCPS THROUGH 14Z,
OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS.
I HAVE CONSERVATIVELY INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
FOR MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THE CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY
DROP TO IFR WITH GUSTY WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN MO WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AT KSTL. I HAVE
CONSERVATIVELY INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS,
HOWEVER THE CONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY DROP TO IFR WITH GUSTY
WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
412 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-190000-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
412 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
126 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     HAIL             WRIGHT CITY             38.83N  91.02W
08/18/2015  E0.50 INCH       WARREN             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL RANGED FROM PEA TO MARBLE SIZE.

&&

DYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
239 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE NEW HAVEN          38.57N  91.17W
08/18/2015  E58 MPH          FRANKLIN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SOPTTER REPOTED 50 - 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

JPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
245 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W WASHINGTON          38.55N  91.05W
08/18/2015  E58 MPH          FRANKLIN           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            SMALL WINDS DOWN WEST OF WASHINGTON... MO

&&

JPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
245 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W WASHINGTON          38.55N  91.05W
08/18/2015  E58 MPH          FRANKLIN           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            SMALL LIMBS DOWN WEST OF WASHINGTON... MO

&&

JPK